IntroductionMen who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) in Brazil experience high rates of HIV infection. We examined the clinical and economic outcomes of implementing a pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programme in these populations.MethodsWe used the Cost‐Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)‐International model of HIV prevention and treatment to evaluate two strategies: the current standard of care (SOC) in Brazil, including universal ART access (No PrEP strategy); and the current SOC plus daily tenofovir/emtracitabine PrEP (PrEP strategy) until age 50. Mean age (31 years, SD 8.4 years), age‐stratified annual HIV incidence (age ≤ 40 years: 4.3/100 PY; age > 40 years: 1.0/100 PY), PrEP effectiveness (43% HIV incidence reduction) and PrEP drug costs ($23/month) were from Brazil‐based sources. The analysis focused on direct medical costs of HIV care. We measured the comparative value of PrEP in 2015 United States dollars (USD) per year of life saved (YLS). Willingness‐to‐pay threshold was based on Brazil's annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP; 2015: $8540 USD).ResultsLifetime HIV infection risk among high‐risk MSM and TGW was 50.5% with No PrEP and decreased to 40.1% with PrEP. PrEP increased per‐person undiscounted (discounted) life expectancy from 36.8 (20.7) years to 41.0 (22.4) years and lifetime discounted HIV‐related medical costs from $4100 to $8420, which led to an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $2530/YLS. PrEP remained cost‐effective (<1x GDP) under plausible variation in key parameters, including PrEP effectiveness and cost, initial cohort age and HIV testing frequency on/off PrEP.ConclusionDaily tenofovir/emtracitabine PrEP among MSM and TGW at high risk of HIV infection in Brazil would increase life expectancy and be highly cost‐effective.

Background and objectiveSimulation models can project effects of tobacco use and cessation and inform tobacco control policies. Most existing tobacco models do not explicitly include relapse, a key component of the natural history of tobacco use. Our objective was to develop, calibrate and validate a novel individual-level microsimulation model that would explicitly include smoking relapse and project cigarette smoking behaviours and associated mortality risks.MethodsWe developed the Simulation of Tobacco and Nicotine Outcomes and Policy (STOP) model, in which individuals transition monthly between tobacco use states (current/former/never) depending on rates of initiation, cessation and relapse. Simulated individuals face tobacco use-stratified mortality risks. For US women and men, we conducted cross-validation with a Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) model. We then incorporated smoking relapse and calibrated cessation rates to reflect the difference between a transient quit attempt and sustained abstinence. We performed external validation with the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the linked National Death Index. Comparisons were based on root-mean-square error (RMSE).ResultsIn cross-validation, STOP-generated projections of current/former/never smoking prevalence fit CISNET-projected data well (coefficient of variation (CV)-RMSE≤15%). After incorporating smoking relapse, multiplying the CISNET-reported cessation rates for women/men by 7.75/7.25, to reflect the ratio of quit attempts to sustained abstinence, resulted in the best approximation to CISNET-reported smoking prevalence (CV-RMSE 2%/3%). In external validation using these new multipliers, STOP-generated cumulative mortality curves for 20-year-old current smokers and never smokers each had CV-RMSE ≤1% compared with NHIS. In simulating those surveyed by NHIS in 1997, the STOP-projected prevalence of current/former/never smokers annually (1998–2009) was similar to that reported by NHIS (CV-RMSE 12%).ConclusionsThe STOP model, with relapse included, performed well when validated to US smoking prevalence and mortality. STOP provides a flexible framework for policy-relevant analysis of tobacco and nicotine product use.

Objective To examine the clinical and economic value of point-of-care CD4 (POC-CD4) or viral load (VL) monitoring compared to current practices in Mozambique, a country representative of the diverse resource limitations encountered by HIV treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa. Design/Methods We use the CEPAC-I model to examine the clinical impact, cost (2014 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, $/year of life saved [YLS]) of ART monitoring strategies in Mozambique. We compare: 1) monitoring for clinical disease progression (CLIN) vs. annual POC-CD4 in rural settings without laboratory services and 2) biannual laboratory CD4 (LAB-CD4), biannual POC-CD4, and annual VL in urban settings with laboratory services. We examine the impact of a range of values in sensitivity analyses, using Mozambique’s 2014 per capita GDP ($620) as a benchmark cost-effectiveness threshold. Results In rural settings, annual POC-CD4 compared to CLIN improves life expectancy by 2.8 years, reduces time on failed ART by 0.6 years, and yields an ICER of $480/YLS. In urban settings, biannual POC-CD4 is more expensive and less effective than VL. Compared to biannual LAB-CD4, VL improves life expectancy by 0.6 years, reduces time on failed ART by 1.0 year, and is cost-effective ($440/YLS). Conclusions In rural settings, annual POC-CD4 improves clinical outcomes and is cost-effective compared to CLIN. In urban settings, VL has the greatest clinical benefit and is cost-effective compared to biannual POC-CD4 or LAB-CD4. Tailoring ART monitoring strategies to specific settings with different available resources can improve clinical outcomes while remaining economically efficient.

Individuals aged 65 years and older currently make up a larger share of the population than ever before, and this group is predicted to continue growing both in absolute terms and relative to the rest of the population. This chapter begins by introducing the facts, figures, and forecasts surrounding the ageing of populations across different countries at varying levels of development. In light of these trends, we examine challenges facing greying societies through the lenses of health, economics, and policy development. The chapter concludes with a selection of adaptable strategies that countries might consider to mitigate the strain—and to harness the full potential—of ageing populations worldwide.

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