Abstract. Snow instability data provide information about the mechanical state of the snow cover and are essential for forecasting snow avalanches. So far, direct observations of instability (recent avalanches, shooting cracks or whumpf sounds) are complemented with field tests such as the rutschblock test, since no measurement method for instability exists. We propose a new approach based on snow mechanical properties derived from the snow micropenetrometer that takes into account the two essential processes during dry-snow avalanche release: failure initiation and crack propagation. To estimate the propensity of failure initiation we define a stress-based failure criterion, whereas the propensity of crack propagation is described by the critical cut length as obtained with a propagation saw test. The input parameters include layer thickness, snow density, effective elastic modulus, strength and specific fracture energy of the weak layer -all derived from the penetration-force signal acquired with the snow micro-penetrometer. Both instability measures were validated with independent field data and correlated well with results from field tests. Comparisons with observed signs of instability clearly indicated that a snowpack is only prone to avalanche if the two separate conditions for failure initiation and crack propagation are fulfilled. To our knowledge, this is the first time that an objective method for estimating snow instability has been proposed. The approach can either be used directly based on field measurements with the snow micro-penetrometer, or be implemented in numerical snow cover models. With an objective measure of instability at hand, the problem of spatial variations of instability and its causes can now be tackled.

ABSTRACT. Measurements of the mechanical properties of snow are essential for improving our understanding and the prediction of snow failure and hence avalanche release. We performed fracture mechanical experiments in which a crack was initiated by a saw in a weak snow layer underlying cohesive snow slab layers. Using particle tracking velocimetry (PTV), the displacement field of the slab was determined and used to derive the mechanical energy of the system as a function of crack length. By fitting the estimates of mechanical energy to an analytical expression, we determined the slab effective elastic modulus and weak layer specific fracture energy for 80 different snowpack combinations, including persistent and nonpersistent weak snow layers. The effective elastic modulus of the slab ranged from 0.08 to 34 MPa and increased with mean slab density following a power-law relationship. The weak layer specific fracture energy ranged from 0.08 to 2.7 J m −2 and increased with overburden. While the values obtained for the effective elastic modulus of the slab agree with previously published low-frequency laboratory measurements over the entire density range, the values of the weak layer specific fracture energy are in some cases unrealistically high as they exceeded those of ice. We attribute this discrepancy to the fact that our linear elastic approach does not account for energy dissipation due to non-linear parts of the deformation in the slab and/or weak layer, which would undoubtedly decrease the amount of strain energy available for crack propagation.

This report is based on about 10 500 pp collision events produced in the 81-cm Saclay hydrogen bubble chamber at CERN. Cross-section values for the different identified final states and resonances are given. The isobars iV*i 2 38, iV*i42o, iV*i6is, N*i688, iV*i 9 2o, and iV* 2 360 were identified and their production crosssection values were found via a best-fit analysis of different invariant-rnass histograms. About 70% of the isobars are connected with the quasi-two-body reactions pp -> N*N and pp -»N*N*. The reaction pp -» nN*m${pTr + ) with a cross section of 3.25±0.16 mb was analyzed in terms of a peripheral absorption model, which was found to be in good agreement with the data. Various decay modes of the iV*i6i8 and iV*i688 isobars were observed and their branching ratios determined. The branching ratio of mr + to pTr + ir~ was found to be 0.77±0.45 for N* m8 and 0.67±0.40 for iV*i688-. The branching ratio of N* 12 3&(p7r + )T-to. pir + ir~ of iV*i 688 was estimated to be 0.74±0.14. Pion production turned out to be mainly due to decay of isobars. Production of meson resonances turned out to be less important; the reaction pp -»ppaP -> ppir + ir~7r° was identified with a cross-section value of 0.11 ±0.02 mb. Finally, the production of neutral strange particles with a cross section of 0.45±0.04 mb is descussed. Strong formation of F*i 3 s5 is observed.

The evaluation of avalanche release conditions constitutes a great challenge for risk assessment in mountainous areas. The spatial variability of snowpack properties has an important impact on snow slope stability and thus on avalanche formation, since it strongly influences failure initiation and crack propagation in weak snow layers. Hence, the determination of the link between these spatial variations and slope stability is very important, in particular, for avalanche public forecasting. In this study, a statistical-mechanical model of the slab-weak layer (WL) system relying on stochastic finite element simulations is used to investigate snowpack stability and avalanche release probability for spontaneously releasing avalanches. This model accounts, in particular, for the spatial variations of WL shear strength and stress redistribution by elasticity of the slab. We show how avalanche release probability can be computed from release depth distributions, which allows us to study the influence of WL spatial variations and slab properties on slope stability. The importance of smoothing effects by slab elasticity is verified and the crucial impact of spatial variation characteristics on the so-called knock-down effect on slope stability is revisited using this model. Finally, critical length values are computed from the simulations as a function of the various model parameters and are compared to field data obtained with propagation saw tests.

Snow instability is a generic term describing the propensity of a snow slope to avalanche. In need of a concise mechanics‐based concept we suggest a framework based on failure initiation, crack propagation, and slab tensile support. Following these three steps we modeled three metrics from mechanical data, which we derived from snow micropenetrometer signals. Verifying the metrics with field measurements confirmed that slab thickness and weak layer strength typically influence failure initiation, elastic modulus and weak layer fracture energy largely control crack propagation, and slab thickness and tensile strength provide the required tensile support. For all three metrics, considering slab layering was essential. Validation with signs of instability showed that the most accurate model includes all three steps – suggesting that snow instability can be described by failure initiation, crack propagation, and slab tensile support. Further validation is needed to assess the framework's potential for operational use.