Background The COVID-19 pandemic has strained health system capacity worldwide due to a surge of hospital admissions, while mitigation measures have simultaneously reduced patients' access to health care, affecting the diagnosis and treatment of other diseases such as cancer. We estimated the impact of delayed diagnosis on cancer outcomes in Chile using a novel modelling approach to inform policies and planning to mitigate the forthcoming cancer-related health impacts of the pandemic in Chile. Methods We developed a microsimulation model of five cancers in Chile (breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach) for which reliable data were available, which simulates cancer incidence and progression in a nationally representative virtual population, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities. We calibrated the model to empirical data on monthly detected cases, as well as stage at diagnosis and 5-year net survival. We accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on excess mortality and cancer detection by month during the pandemic, and projected diagnosed cancer cases and outcomes of stage at diagnosis and survival up to 2030. For comparison, we simulated a no COVID-19 scenario in which the impacts of COVID-19 on excess mortality and cancer detection were removed. Findings Our modelling showed a sharp decrease in the number of diagnosed cancer cases during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a large projected short-term increase in future diagnosed cases. Due to the projected backlog in diagnosis, we estimated that in 2021 there will be an extra 3198 cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1356–5017) diagnosed among the five modelled cancers, an increase of nearly 14% compared with the no COVID-19 scenario, falling to a projected 10% increase in 2022 with 2674 extra cases (1318–4032) diagnosed. As a result of delayed diagnosis, we found a worse stage distribution for detected cancers in 2020–22, which is estimated to lead to 3542 excess cancer deaths (95% UI 2236–4816) in 2022–30, compared with the no COVID-19 scenario, among the five modelled cancers, most of which (3299 deaths, 2151–4431) are projected to occur before 2025. Interpretation In addition to a large projected surge in diagnosed cancer cases, we found that delays in diagnosis will result in worse cancer stage at presentation, leading to worse survival outcomes. These findings can help to inform surge capacity planning and highlight the importance of ensuring appropriate health system capacity levels to detect and care for the increased cancer cases in the coming years, while maintaining the timeliness and quality of cancer care. Potential delays in treatment and adverse impacts on quality of care, which were not considered in this model, are likely to contribute to even more excess deaths from cancer than projected. Funding Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. Translations For the...

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Background: Breast cancer (BC) is the leading cause of cancer death for Chilean women. About 11% of cases are triple-negative (TN) BC. These are characterised by poor prognosis, higher risk of early recurrence and visceral dissemination versus other BC subtypes. Current standard treatment for early-stage non-metastatic TNBC patients consists of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) followed by surgery and radiotherapy. Pathological complete response (pCR) to NACT is associated with an increase in survival rates. In general, NACT and adjuvant regimens involve similar cytotoxic drugs. Recent studies have postulated that the use of platinum compounds in TNBC would increase response rates. However, their effects on patient survival remain uncertain. Materials and methods:We retrieved and analysed medical records from a total of 156 Chilean stage I-III TNBC female patients that received NACT and compared survival rates using carboplatin (Cb)-containing versus non-Cb-containing regimens at two health cancer centres.Results: Median age was 51 years (range: 24-81); 13.5% (n = 21) received Cb-containing regimens, 80.1% (n = 125) received sequential anthracyclines plus taxanes; 29.5% (n = 46) of the total group achieved pCR, 28% for the standard treatment and 35% (n = 8) for the Cb-containing group (p = 0.59). We confirmed pCR was associated with prolonged overall survival, invasive and distant disease-free survival (Log-rank p = 0.0236). But the addition of Cb was not associated with differences in survival measures (Log-rank p = 0.5216). Conclusions:To the best of authors' knowledge, this is the first report on real-world data in the Chilean population assessing the effect of Cb-containing NACT in TNBC. The authors' results suggest no survival benefit by the addition of Cb to standard NACT. However, we confirm an increase in survival associated to pCR regardless of treatment.

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