This paper assesses the relevance of the exchange rate regime for stabilization policy. Using both …scal and monetary policy, we conclude that the exchange rate regime is irrelevant. This is the case independently of the severity of price rigidities, independently of asymmetries across countries in shocks and transmission mechanisms and regardless of the incompleteness of international …nancial markets. The only relevant condition is on labor mobility. The results can be summarized with the claim that every currency area is an optimal currency area, provided labor is not mobile across countries.

We calculate the effects of an increase in government spending financed with labor income taxes or inflation. We consider government spending in the form of government consumption or transfers. We use a model in which agents increase the use of financial services to avoid losses from inflation, as empirically the financial sector increases with inflation. The financial sector size is constant in standard cash-in-advance models, which implies optimal positive inflation. We reverse this result when we take into account the increase in the financial sector. In our framework, it is optimal to use taxes to finance the government. This result is robust to alternative specifications and definitions of seigniorage and government spending.

The options premiums are frequently used to obtain probability density functions (pdfs) for the prices of the underlying assets. When these assets are bank deposits or notional Government bonds it is possible to compute probability measures of future interest rates. Recently, in the literature there have been many papers presenting methods of how to estimate pdfs from options premiums. Nevertheless, as far as we know, the estimation of probabilities of forward interest rate functions is an issue that has not been analysed before. In this paper, we propose such a method, that can be used to study the evolution of the expectations about interest rate convergence. We look at the cases of Spain and Italy against Germany, before the adoption of a single currency, and conclude that the expectations on the short-term interest rates convergence of Spain and Italy vis-a-vis Germany had a somewhat different trajectory, with higher expectations of convergence for Spain.

No abstract

We find that the Friedman rule is not optimal with government transfers and distortionary taxation. This result holds for heterogeneous agents, standard homogeneous preferences, and constant returns to scale production functions. The presence of transfers changes the standard optimal taxation result of uniform taxation. As transfers cannot be taxed, a positive nominal net interest rate is the indirect way to tax the additional income derived from transfers. The higher the transfers, the higher is the optimal inflation rate. We calibrate a model with transfers to the US economy and obtain optimal values for inflation substantially above the Friedman rule.