Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

In the last few years, machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence have seen a new wave of publicity fueled by the huge and ever‐increasing amount of data and computational power as well as the discovery of improved learning algorithms. However, the idea of a computer learning some abstract concept from data and applying them to yet unseen situations is not new and has been around at least since the 1950s. Many of these basic principles are very familiar to the pharmacometrics and clinical pharmacology community. In this paper, we want to introduce the foundational ideas of ML to this community such that readers obtain the essential tools they need to understand publications on the topic. Although we will not go into the very details and theoretical background, we aim to point readers to relevant literature and put applications of ML in molecular biology as well as the fields of pharmacometrics and clinical pharmacology into perspective.

In systems biology, one of the major tasks is to tailor model complexity to information content of the data. A useful model should describe the data and produce well-determined parameter estimates and predictions. Too small of a model will not be able to describe the data whereas a model which is too large tends to overfit measurement errors and does not provide precise predictions. Typically, the model is modified and tuned to fit the data, which often results in an oversized model. To restore the balance between model complexity and available measurements, either new data has to be gathered or the model has to be reduced. In this manuscript, we present a data-based method for reducing non-linear models. The profile likelihood is utilised to assess parameter identifiability and designate likely candidates for reduction. Parameter dependencies are analysed along profiles, providing context-dependent suggestions for the type of reduction. We discriminate four distinct scenarios, each associated with a specific model reduction strategy. Iterating the presented procedure eventually results in an identifiable model, which is capable of generating precise and testable predictions. Source code for all toy examples is provided within the freely available, open-source modelling environment Data2Dynamics based on MATLAB available at http://www.data2dynamics.org/, as well as the R packages dMod/cOde available at https://github.com/dkaschek/. Moreover, the concept is generally applicable and can readily be used with any software capable of calculating the profile likelihood.

Systems biology aims for building quantitative models to address unresolved issues in molecular biology. In order to describe the behavior of biological cells adequately, gene regulatory networks (GRNs) are intensively investigated. As the validity of models built for GRNs depends crucially on the kinetic rates, various methods have been developed to estimate these parameters from experimental data. For this purpose, it is favorable to choose the experimental conditions yielding maximal information. However, existing experimental design principles often rely on unfulfilled mathematical assumptions or become computationally demanding with growing model complexity. To solve this problem, we combined advanced methods for parameter and uncertainty estimation with experimental design considerations. As a showcase, we optimized three simulated GRNs in one of the challenges from the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods (DREAM). This article presents our approach, which was awarded the best performing procedure at the DREAM6 Estimation of Model Parameters challenge. For fast and reliable parameter estimation, local deterministic optimization of the likelihood was applied. We analyzed identifiability and precision of the estimates by calculating the profile likelihood. Furthermore, the profiles provided a way to uncover a selection of most informative experiments, from which the optimal one was chosen using additional criteria at every step of the design process. In conclusion, we provide a strategy for optimal experimental design and show its successful application on three highly nonlinear dynamic models. Although presented in the context of the GRNs to be inferred for the DREAM6 challenge, the approach is generic and applicable to most types of quantitative models in systems biology and other disciplines.

Motivation: A major goal of drug development is to selectively target certain cell types. Cellular decisions influenced by drugs are often dependent on the dynamic processing of information. Selective responses can be achieved by differences between the involved cell types at levels of receptor, signaling, gene regulation or further downstream. Therefore, a systematic approach to detect and quantify cell type-specific parameters in dynamical systems becomes necessary.Results: Here, we demonstrate that a combination of nonlinear modeling with L1 regularization is capable of detecting cell type-specific parameters. To adapt the least-squares numerical optimization routine to L1 regularization, sub-gradient strategies as well as truncation of proposed optimization steps were implemented. Likelihood-ratio tests were used to determine the optimal regularization strength resulting in a sparse solution in terms of a minimal number of cell type-specific parameters that is in agreement with the data. By applying our implementation to a realistic dynamical benchmark model of the DREAM6 challenge we were able to recover parameter differences with an accuracy of 78%. Within the subset of detected differences, 91% were in agreement with their true value. Furthermore, we found that the results could be improved using the profile likelihood. In conclusion, the approach constitutes a general method to infer an overarching model with a minimum number of individual parameters for the particular models.Availability and Implementation: A MATLAB implementation is provided within the freely available, open-source modeling environment Data2Dynamics. Source code for all examples is provided online at http://www.data2dynamics.org/.Contact: bernhard.steiert@fdm.uni-freiburg.de