No abstract

Abstract-Power companies can benefit from the use of knowledge discovery methods and statistical machine learning for preventive maintenance. We introduce a general process for transforming historical electrical grid data into models that aim to predict the risk of failures for components and systems. These models can be used directly by power companies to assist with prioritization of maintenance and repair work. Specialized versions of this process are used to produce 1) feeder failure rankings, 2) cable, joint, terminator and transformer rankings, 3) feeder MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure) estimates and 4) manhole events vulnerability rankings. The process in its most general form can handle diverse, noisy, sources that are historical (static), semi-real-time, or real-time, incorporates state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms for prioritization (supervised ranking or MTBF), and includes an evaluation of results via cross-validation and blind test. Above and beyond the ranked lists and MTBF estimates are business management interfaces that allow the prediction capability to be integrated directly into corporate planning and decision support; such interfaces rely on several important properties of our general modeling approach: that machine learning features are meaningful to domain experts, that the processing of data is transparent, and that prediction results are accurate enough to support sound decision making. We discuss the challenges in working with historical electrical grid data that were not designed for predictive purposes. The "rawness" of these data contrasts with the accuracy of the statistical models that can be obtained from the process; these models are sufficiently accurate to assist in maintaining New York City's electrical grid.Index Terms-applications of machine learning, electrical grid, smart grid, knowledge discovery, supervised ranking, computational sustainability, reliability !

Online debate forums present a valuable opportunity for the understanding and modeling of dialogue. To understand these debates, a key challenge is inferring the stances of the participants, all of which are interrelated and dependent. While collectively modeling users' stances has been shown to be effective (Walker et al., 2012c;Hasan and Ng, 2013), there are many modeling decisions whose ramifications are not well understood. To investigate these choices and their effects, we introduce a scalable unified probabilistic modeling framework for stance classification models that 1) are collective, 2) reason about disagreement, and 3) can model stance at either the author level or at the post level. We comprehensively evaluate the possible modeling choices on eight topics across two online debate corpora, finding accuracy improvements of up to 11.5 percentage points over a local classifier. Our results highlight the importance of making the correct modeling choices for online dialogues, and having a unified probabilistic modeling framework that makes this possible.

Drug-target interaction studies are important because they can predict drugs' unexpected therapeutic or adverse side effects. In silico predictions of potential interactions are valuable and can focus effort on in vitro experiments. We propose a prediction framework that represents the problem using a bipartite graph of drug-target interactions augmented with drug-drug and target-target similarity measures and makes predictions using probabilistic soft logic (PSL). Using probabilistic rules in PSL, we predict interactions with models based on triad and tetrad structures. We apply (blocking) techniques that make link prediction in PSL more efficient for drug-target interaction prediction. We then perform extensive experimental studies to highlight different aspects of the model and the domain, first comparing the models with different structures and then measuring the effect of the proposed blocking on the prediction performance and efficiency. We demonstrate the importance of rule weight learning in the proposed PSL model and then show that PSL can effectively make use of a variety of similarity measures. We perform an experiment to validate the importance of collective inference and using multiple similarity measures for accurate predictions in contrast to non-collective and single similarity assumptions. Finally, we illustrate that our PSL model achieves state-of-the-art performance with simple, interpretable rules and evaluate our novel predictions using online data sets.

Traditional structured prediction models try to learn the conditional likelihood, i.e., p(y|x), to capture the relationship between the structured output y and the input features x. For many models, computing the likelihood is intractable. These models are therefore hard to train, requiring the use of surrogate objectives or variational inference to approximate likelihood. In this paper, we propose conditional Glow (c-Glow), a conditional generative flow for structured output learning. C-Glow benefits from the ability of flow-based models to compute p(y|x exactly and efficiently. Learning with c-Glow does not require a surrogate objective or performing inference during training. Once trained, we can directly and efficiently generate conditional samples. We develop a sample-based prediction method, which can use this advantage to do efficient and effective inference. In our experiments, we test c-Glow on five different tasks. C-Glow outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in some tasks and predicts comparable outputs in the other tasks. The results show that c-Glow is versatile and is applicable to many different structured prediction problems.