A major concern for developing economies is a dependence on commodities when their prices are volatile as a major change in the international commodity price can have important implications for economic growth. While some cross-country studies exist, there is lack of country specific studies that take into account the different characteristics of low-income economies. This paper contributes to the growing literature by considering the case of Malawi and the macroeconomic impact of price shocks in its major export crop of tobacco. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach on quarterly Malawian data from 1980:1 to 2012:4, the paper establishes that a positive tobacco price shock has a significant positive impact on the country's gross domestic product, decreasing consumer prices and inducing real exchange rate appreciation. The results are robust to alternative specifications of a SVAR on difference stationary data and cointegrating VAR. The cointegrating VAR confirms the existence of a long run-relationship among the variables and causality that runs from tobacco prices. JEL Classification: E3, F18, F31, F35
This study examines the influence of social networks on the settlement and integration of young internal migrants in Malawi. By employing probit models on a unique dataset collected from 1500 urban migrant youths aged between 15 to 35. The results reveal that social networks positively relate to migrant youths settlement in their first migration destination. The relationship is driven by religious grouping membership. Further, social networks of religious groupings and home associations positively relate to migrant youth integration, observed from their increased business ownership. Membership to workers’ unions relates negatively to entrepreneurship. The social networks do not relate to wage job employment. These findings suggest that policy that supports establishment of social networks or leverages their availability could be are key in improving migrant youth welfare through supporting settlement and integration. However, if the goal is enhance migrant youth's formal employment, alternative interventions such as vocation training should be considered.
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