Krisik Village is one of the villages located in Gandusari District, Blitar Regency, East Java Province. Krisik Village has abundant natural resources. Krisik Village has livestock products in the form of milk and its processed products which are managed independently by the Bumdes Krisik. Krisik Village already has several types of dairy products, namely fermented milk, milk sticks, milk candy and milk ice cream. As a step to improve the typical product of Krisik village, it is necessary to have an activity that is able to increase public understanding in product processing and marketing. This service activity aims to improve the quality and marketing of dairy products in Krisik village. Activities that have been carried out are in the form of coordination with the village, making ice cream packaging designs and product marketing training by utilizing social media. This activity is expected to increase the independence of the crisis village community in marketing their products.
Analisis deret waktu adalah suatu pengamatan yang dibangun berdasarkan urutan waktu. Peranan analisis deret waktu bermanfaat di berbagai bidang khususnya meteorologi. Salah satu aspek meteorologi adalah curah hujan, yang mana dapat memberikan dampak bagi kehidupan manusia. Curah hujan memiliki pola yang rumit untuk diprediksi, sehingga diperlukan metode terbaik untuk meramalkan curah hujan. Terdapat beberapa metode yang mampu menganalisis intensitas curah hujan. Metode yang dapat digunakan untuk meramalkan curah hujan adalah metode ARIMA, metode Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN), dan hybrid ARIMA-NN. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan pemodelan dan prediksi curah hujan yang terbaik berdasarkan ketiga metode di atas. Data curah hujan yang digunakan berasal dari alat Mini Weather Station (MWS) di lokasi Dusun Supiturang dan Dusun Manggisari. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, pada lokasi Supiturang didapatkan model terbaik yaitu ARIMA(1,1,1) dengan RMSE sebesar 3,4326. Pada lokasi Manggisari didapatkan model terbaik yaitu Hybrid ARIMA(1,1,1) FFNN(4-9-1) dengan RMSE sebesar 3,1056.
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