Background The risk for depression markedly rises during the 5–6 years leading up to the cessation of menstruation, known as the menopause transition. Exposure to extreme estradiol levels may help explain this increase but few studies have examined individual sensitivity to estradiol in predicting perimenopausal depression. Method The current study recruited 101 perimenopausal women. During Phase 1, we quantified each woman's sensitivity to changes in estradiol using 12 weekly measures of estrone-3-glucuronide (E1G), a urinary metabolite of estradiol, and concurrent depressive symptoms. The weekly cortisol awakening response was measured to examine the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis in mediating mood sensitivity to estradiol. In Phase 2, depressive symptoms and major depression diagnoses were assessed monthly for 9 months. The relationship between Phase 1 E1G sensitivity and Phase 2 depressive symptoms and major depressive episodes was examined. Several baseline characteristics were examined as potential moderators of this relationship. Results The within-person correlation between weekly E1G and mood varied greatly from woman to woman, both in strength and direction. Phase 1 E1G mood sensitivity predicted the occurrence of clinically significant depressive symptoms in Phase 2 among certain subsets of women: those without a prior history of depression, reporting a low number of baseline stressful life events, and reporting fewer months since their last menstrual period. HPA axis sensitivity to estradiol fluctuation did not predict Phase 2 outcomes. Conclusion Mood sensitivity to estradiol predicts risk for perimenopausal depression, particularly among women who are otherwise at low risk and among those who are early in the transition.

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Background The menopause transition is associated with an increased risk of depression. While the mechanisms behind this increased risk are not well understood, the changing perimenopausal hormonal environment has been hypothesized to play a role. The current study examined the potential influence of testosterone and the ratio of testosterone to estradiol as a potential contributor to depressed mood in the menopause transition. Methods Fifty non-depressed perimenopausal women ages 45–55 were recruited for this study. Once every 3 weeks, for a total of four times, the women completed the Centre for Epidemiological Studies-Depression (CES-D) scale for the measurement of depressive symptoms and provided a first-morning urine sample for the measurement of urinary testosterone as well as estrone-3-glucuronide (E1G), a urinary metabolite of estradiol. The week-to-week and mean effects of testosterone, E1G, and the testosterone/E1G ratio on CES-D score were examined. Self-reported sleep quality and vasomotor symptoms were also assessed at each of the four time points. Results Testosterone levels rose with increasing months since last menstrual period associated with testosterone levels (β(SE) = 175.3(63.2), p = .006), though this effect was moderated by body mass index (p for the interaction = .001) such that overweight women showed a less pronounced increase over time. Past and current smokers also had higher testosterone levels compared to never smokers. Week-to-week testosterone/E1G ratio was positively associated with CES-D score (β(SE) = 1.57(0.76), p = .041) but not sleep quality or vasomotor symptoms (ps > .05). Mean testosterone/E1G ratio was also positively associated with vasomotor symptom bother (β(SE) = 0.14(0.06), p = .018) and poorer sleep quality (β(SE) = − 0.34(0.09), p = .0001). Conclusion These results suggest that, within the context of the menopause transition, times that are characterized by a higher testosterone-to-estradiol ratio may be associated with higher depressive symptoms. Perimenopausal women with a higher average ratio of testosterone relative to estradiol may also experience more sleep difficulties and vasomotor symptom bother.

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