ObjectivesTo estimate the effectiveness of endoscopic screening programme in reducing incidence and mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer in high risks areas of China.DesignThis multicentre population-based cohort study was conducted in six areas in China from 2005 to 2015. All permanent residents aged 40 to 69 years were identified as target subjects. We refer to those who were invited for screening collectively as the invited group. Of these, we classify those who were invited and undertook endoscopic screening as the screened group and those who were invited but did not accept screening as the non-screened group. Target subjects who were not invited to the screening were assigned to the control group. The effectiveness of the endoscopic screening and screening programme were evaluated by comparing reductions in incidence and mortality from upper gastrointestinal cancer in the screened and invited group with control group.ResultsOur cohort analysis included 637 500 people: 299 483 in the control group and 338 017 in the invited to screening group, 113 340 (33.53%) of whom were screened eventually. Compared with subjects in the control group, upper gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality decreased by 23% (relative risk (RR)=0.77, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.81) and 57% (RR=0.43, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.47) in the screened group, respectively, and by 14% (RR=0.86, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.89) and 31% (RR=0.69, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.72) in the invited group, respectively.ConclusionAmong individuals aged 40 to 69 years in high risk areas of upper gastrointestinal cancer, one-time endoscopic screening programme was associated with a significant decrease in upper gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality.

INTRODUCTION: Data on the associations between esophageal histological lesions and risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in general populations are limited. We aimed to investigate these associations in a large Chinese general population to inform future Chinese ESCC screening guidelines. METHODS: We performed endoscopic screening of 21,111 participants aged 40–69 years from 3 high-risk areas of China in 2005–2009, and followed the cohort through 2016. Cumulative incidence and mortality rates of ESCC were calculated by baseline histological diagnosis, and hazard ratios of ESCC, overall and by age and sex, were assessed using the Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We identified 143 new ESCC cases (0.68%) and 62 ESCC deaths (0.29%) during a median follow-up of 8.5 years. Increasing grades of squamous dysplasia were associated with the increasing risk of ESCC incidence and mortality. The cumulative ESCC incidence rates for severe dysplasia/carcinoma in situ, moderate dysplasia (MD), and mild dysplasia were 15.5%, 4.5%, and 1.4%, respectively. Older individuals (50–69 years) had 3.1 times higher ESCC incidence than younger individuals (40–49 years), and men had 2.4 times higher ESCC incidence than women. DISCUSSION: This study confirmed that increasing grades of squamous dysplasia are associated with increasing risk of ESCC and that severe dysplasia and carcinoma in situ require clinical treatment. This study suggests that in high-risk areas of China, patients with endoscopically worrisome MD should also receive therapy, the first screening can be postponed to 50 years, and endoscopic surveillance intervals for unremarkable MD and mild dysplasia can be lengthened to 3 and 5 years, respectively.

Efficacy of endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer is not sufficiently definitive and lacks randomized controlled trial evidence. The present study proved short‐term screening efficacy through describing and comparing disease stage distributions of intervention and control populations. Villages from Linzhou and Cixian were cluster randomly allocated to the intervention or to the control group and the target population of 52 729 and 43 068 individuals was 40‐69 years old, respectively, and the actual enrolled numbers were 18 316 and 21 178, respectively. TNM stage information and study‐defined stage information of esophageal cases from 2012 to 2016 were collected. Stage distributions were compared between the intervention and control groups in the total target population, as well as in the subgroup populations in terms of enrolment and before or after intervention. There were a total of 199 and 141 esophageal cancer cases in the intervention and control groups, respectively. For the target population, distributions of TNM stage were borderline significant between the two groups after intervention (P = .093). However, subgroup analysis of the enrolled population during the after‐intervention period had statistical significance for both TNM and study‐defined stage. Natural TNM stage distributions were approximately 32%, 41%, 24% and 3% for stages I to IV vs 71%, 19%, 7% and 3% in the intervention population. The natural study‐defined stage distributions from early, middle to advanced stages were approximately 18%, 49% and 33% vs 59%, 33% and 8%. Early‐stage esophageal cancer cases accounted for a higher proportion after endoscopy screening, and the efficacy in the target population depends on the intervention compliance.

No abstract

BackgroundSurvival of esophageal cancer in Linzhou was seen to increase over the past few decades and is higher than the average level of China due to the implementation of comprehensive prevention and control measures. In population-based studies, relative survival is a common index to approximate disease-specific survival. However, the cure fraction maybe great interest to patients and physicians. This study aimed to investigate the cure fraction of esophageal cancer in Linzou city during 2003–2012 with a cure model.MethodsWe carried out a population-based study of 8067 esophageal cancer patients in the Linzhou city during 2003–2012. Flexible parametric cure models were used to estimate cure proportions and median survival times of uncured by year of diagnosed and age. In each model, an interaction between calendar year and age were included. All variables in the model were included both as constant and time-varying effects.ResultsThe 5-year relative survival rate was increased in every age group from 2003 to 2012. The huge increase in the cure proportion was observed in each age group. At the year of 2011–2012, 79.8%, 58.0%, 123.4% and 162.7% improvements of cure proportion were seen in age group 19–49, 50–59, 60–69 and 70–99 years compared with year of 2003–2004. Meanwhile, survival of ‘uncured’ patients changed little in all age group.ConclusionsThe improvement of survival in Linzhou city during 2003–2012 was mainly due to an increasing cure proportion. Huge improvement of cure fraction within short period is likely due to the organized screening of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city.