No abstract

Dehradun city is Uttarakhand's capital and part of the doon valley, which lies between the Himalayas and the Shivaliks. India Meteorological Department has undertaken the Impact Based Forecasting (IBF) of heavy rainfall events for capital/major cities on an experimental basis from the monsoon season 2020. With the improvement in meteorological observation & monitoring network of Uttarakhand and short & medium range Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model outputs, it has become possible to provide impact-based forecast at a very small spatial scale with good accuracy. With the help of a dense network of 5 General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) based Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) & 2 Automatic Rain Gauges (ARG) within a 20 Km radius of Dehradun city center, it has become possible to capture & monitor these events. The spatial analysis of these events suggests that the local orographic features rather than large-scale synoptic features played a major role in heavy rainfalls over Dehradun city. The Heidke skill score of 0.63 and 100% probability of detection is found for the capital city forecast of Dehradun. The presence of monsoon trough to the north of its normal position, a cyclonic circulation south of Uttarakhand over Haryana or East-Rajasthan or West Uttar Pradesh and a Western disturbance around 70°E were found to be the synoptic systems favorable for the occurrence of heavy rainfall in Dehradun city. The occasional strong south-westerly wind flow from the Arabian Sea converging over the foothills of the Western Himalayas is also found to be responsible for the heavy downpour.

Envelopes of storm surges generated by the Porbandar cyclone of 1975, Andhra Pradesh cyclone of 1977 and Pamban cyclone of 1978 are simulated on the computer. The locations and the magnitudes of peak storm surges are found to be in good agreement with observations.

Cloudburst is an extreme weather event characterised by the occurrence of a large amount of rainfall over a small area within a short span of time with a rainfall of 100 mm or more in one hour. It is responsible for flash flood, inundation of low lying areas and landslides in hills causing extensive damages to life and property. During monsoon season 2017 five number of cloudburst events are observed over Uttarakhand and analysed. Self Recording Rain Gauge (SRRG) and 15 minutes interval data from the newly installed General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) based Automatic Weather Station (AWS) are able to capture the cloudburst events over some areas in Uttarakhand. In this paper, an attempt has been made to find out the significant synoptic and thermodynamic conditions associated with the occurrence of the cloudburst events in Uttarakhand. These 5 cases of cloudburst events that are captured during the month of June, July and August 2017 in Uttarakhand are studied in detail. Synoptically, it is observed that the existence of trough at mean sea level from Punjab to head Bay of Bengal running close to Uttarakhand, the movement of Western Disturbance over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir and existence of cyclonic circulation over north Rajasthan and neighbourhood are favourable conditions. Also, the presence of strong south-westerly wind flow from the Arabian Sea across West Rajasthan and Haryana on upper air charts are found during these events. Thermodynamically, the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is found to be high (more than 1100 J/Kg) during most of the cases and vertically integrated precipitable water content (PWC) is more than 55mm. The GPRS based AWS system can help in prediction of the cloud burst event over the specified location with a lead time upto half to one hour in association with radar products.