Background Train is a common mode of public transport across the globe; however, the risk of COVID-19 transmission among individual train passengers remains unclear. Methods We quantified the transmission risk of COVID-19 on high-speed train passengers using data from 2,334 index patients and 72,093 close contacts who had co-travel times of 0–8 hours from 19 December 2019 through 6 March 2020 in China. We analysed the spatial and temporal distribution of COVID-19 transmission among train passengers to elucidate the associations between infection, spatial distance, and co-travel time. Results The attack rate in train passengers on seats within a distance of 3 rows and 5 columns of the index patient varied from 0 to 10.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.3% – 19.0%), with a mean of 0.32% (95%CI 0.29% – 0.37%). Passengers in seats on the same row as the index patient had an average attack rate of 1.5% (95%CI 1.3% – 1.8%), higher than that in other rows (0.14%, 95%CI 0.11% – 0.17%), with a relative risk (RR) of 11.2 (95%CI 8.6 –14.6). Travellers adjacent to the index patient had the highest attack rate (3.5%, 95%CI 2.9% – 4.3%) of COVID-19 infections (RR 18.0, 95%CI 13.9 – 23.4) among all seats. The attack rate decreased with increasing distance, but it increased with increasing co-travel time. The attack rate increased on average by 0.15% (p = 0.005) per hour of co-travel; for passengers at adjacent seats, this increase was 1.3% (p = 0.008), the highest among all seats considered. Conclusions COVID-19 has a high transmission risk among train passengers, but this risk shows significant differences with co-travel time and seat location. During disease outbreaks, when travelling on public transportation in confined spaces such as trains, measures should be taken to reduce the risk of transmission, including increasing seat distance, reducing passenger density, and use of personal hygiene protection.

Spatial analysis is helpful in understanding the spatial diffusion process of an epidemic. The geographical relationships were important during the early phase of the SARS epidemic in Beijing. The statistic based on the number of doctors was significant and more informative than that of the number of hospitals. It reveals that doctors were important in the spread of SARS in Beijing, and hospitals were not as important as doctors in the contagion period. People are the key to the spread of SARS, but the population density was more significant than the population size, although they were both important throughout the whole period.

Summary• With growing concerns over serious ecological problems, a particular challenge is to reveal the complex mechanisms underlying rapid expansion of invasive species. Ageratina adenophora is of particular interest in addressing this question.• We used geographic information systems and logistic regression to identify the geographic and environmental factors contributing to the presence of A. adenophora. Join-count spatial statistics with reproduction mode examination were employed to elucidate the spatiotemporal dispersal mechanisms.• Multiple factors have significantly contributed to the rapid expansion of A. adenophora. Its biological traits, favoring dispersal by water and wind coupled with local spatiotemporally heterogeneous geography and ecology, promote invasion downstream and upstream along river valleys, while other factors associated with human activities facilitate its invasion over high mountains and across river valleys, providing new scope for progressive invasions. We further identified an unusual invasion event of A. adenophora subsequent to a great flood that amplified its dispersal ability from vegetative propagules and seeds.• These findings suggest that dynamic interactions of multiple factors in heterogeneous ecogeographical environments -a 'combinatorial' invasion mechanismwould generate an unexpected invasion rate of an alien species or a seemingly stochastic invasion event.