Temperature is one of the climatic factors that shape the geographic distribution of plant populations. Mangroves are temperature-sensitive plants, and their distributions are severely limited by low temperatures. It is unknown, however, to what extent temperature contributes to their population differentiation and evolution. Kandelia obovata (Rhizophoraceae) is a mangrove species with high cold tolerance in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigated the phenotypic responses of an artificial population of K. obovata, with plants transplanted from different source populations, to extremely low temperatures during winter of 2015–2016 in Yueqing County (28°20′N), Zhejiang Province of China. Using two binary traits, “with/without leaves alive on the branches” and “with/without alive buds on the tips of branches,” we classified plants in this artificial population into strong, moderate and poor cold resistance groups. We further assessed the genetic diversity, structure and differentiation of these three groups, as well as five natural populations along a latitudinal gradient using ten nuclear and six plastid microsatellite markers. Microsatellite data revealed genetic differentiation among the natural populations along the latitudinal gradient. Molecular data indicated that the cold tolerance of three groups in the artificial population was associated with their geographic origins, and that the most cold-tolerant group came from the northernmost natural population. Our study thus indicates that natural populations of K. obovata may have evolved divergent capacity of cold tolerance.

Mangrove forests, which occur in the intertidal regions of tropical and sub-tropical zones, have high ecological and economic values. They have rapidly reduced over the past decades due to various reasons. Reforestation is a common strategy for the conservation of mangroves, but information on the renewal capacity and viability of these artificial mangrove populations is still lacking. Here, we estimated the effective population size (NE) of an artificial population of Kandelia obovata (Rhizophoraceae) and explored the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on changes in NE to evaluate population viability and develop appropriate management strategies for mangrove forests. This population consisted of three ecologically and genetically differentiated groups that had experienced a major low-temperature event during the winter of 2015–2016 and varied in cold resistance. We first detected population bottlenecks and estimated contemporary values of NE for different groups using microsatellite data. Next, we performed paternity analyses for seedlings and propagules to explore variations in the reproductive success of individuals within the three groups before and after the low-temperature event. Lastly, we simulated four scenarios to characterize the effects of low temperature, mating system, and variance in reproductive success on changes in NE in a hypothetical metapopulation based on empirical estimates. Our results show that groups with moderate or poor cold resistance experienced local bottlenecks, and shifts in effective breeders occurred following the low-temperature event, which indicates that low temperature has an effect on not only population size but also reproductive success. Furthermore, our simulations revealed that changes in NE are jointly affected by reproductive success, mating system, and environmental conditions. These findings enhance our understanding of the multiple factors that affect NE, and provide key information that will aid the reforestation and management of mangrove forests, especially when they are introduced to high-latitude areas.