The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (FAW), first invaded Africa in 2016 and has since become established in many areas across the continent where it poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security. We re-parameterized the existing CLIMEX model to assess the FAW global invasion threat, emphasizing the risk of transient and permanent population establishment in Africa under current and projected future climates, considering irrigation patterns. FAW can establish itself in almost all countries in eastern and central Africa and a large part of western Africa under the current climate. Climatic barriers, such as heat and dry stresses, may limit the spread of FAW to North and South Africa. Future projections suggest that FAW invasive range will retract from both northern and southern regions towards the equator. However, a large area in eastern and central Africa is projected to have an optimal climate for FAW persistence. These areas will serve as FAW ‘hotspots’ from where it may migrate to the north and south during favorable seasons and then pose an economic threat. Our projections can be used to identify countries at risk for permanent and transient FAW-population establishment and inform timely integrated pest management interventions under present and future climate in Africa.

Plants produce species‐specific herbivore‐induced plant volatiles (HIPVs) after damage. We tested the hypothesis that herbivore‐specific HIPVs prime neighboring plants to induce defenses specific to the priming herbivore. Since Manduca sexta (specialist) and Heliothis virescens (generalist) herbivory induced unique HIPV profiles in Nicotiana benthamiana, we used these HIPVs to prime receiver plants for defense responses to simulated herbivory (mechanical wounding and herbivore regurgitant application). Jasmonic acid (JA) accumulations and emitted volatile profiles were monitored as representative defense responses since JA is the major plant hormone involved in wound and defense signaling and HIPVs have been implicated as signals in tritrophic interactions. Herbivore species‐specific HIPVs primed neighboring plants, which produced 2 to 4 times more volatiles and JA after simulated herbivory when compared to similarly treated constitutive volatile‐exposed plants. However, HIPV‐exposed plants accumulated similar amounts of volatiles and JA independent of the combination of priming or challenging herbivore. Furthermore, volatile profiles emitted by primed plants depended only on the challenging herbivore species but not on the species‐specific HIPV profile of damaged emitter plants. This suggests that feeding by either herbivore species primed neighboring plants for increased HIPV emissions specific to the subsequently attacking herbivore and is probably controlled by JA.

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (FAW), first invaded Africa in 2016 and has since become established in many areas across the continent where it poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security. We re-parameterized the existing CLIMEX model to assess the FAW global invasion threat, emphasizing the risk of transient and permanent population establishment in Africa under current and predicted future climates, considering irrigation patterns. FAW can establish itself in almost all countries in eastern and central Africa and a large part of western Africa under the current climate. Climatic barriers, such as heat and dry stresses, may limit the spread of FAW to North and South Africa. Future predictions suggest that FAW invasive range will retract from both northern and southern regions towards the equator. However, a large area in eastern and central Africa is predicted to have an optimal climate for FAW persistence. These areas will serve as FAW ‘hotspots’ from where it may migrate to the north and south during winter seasons and then pose an economic threat. Our projections can be used to identify countries at risk for permanent and transient FAW-population establishment and inform timely integrated pest management interventions under present and future climate in Africa.

Background

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