Purpose
It is important to identify which older patients attending the emergency department are at risk of adverse outcomes to introduce preventive interventions. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of a shortened screening instrument based on the Dutch national Safety Management System [Veiligheidsmanagementsysteem (VMS)] guidelines for adverse outcomes in older emergency department patients.
Methods
A cohort study was performed including patients aged 70 years or older who visited the emergency department. Adverse outcomes included hospital admission, return emergency department visits within 30 days, and 90-day mortality. The prognostic value of the VMS-score was assessed for these adverse events and, in addition, a prediction model was developed for 90-day mortality.
Results
A high VMS-score was independently associated with an increased risk of hospital admission [OR 2.26 (95% CI 1.32–3.86)] and 90-day mortality [HR 2.48 (95% CI 1.31–4.71)]. The individual VMS-questions regarding history of delirium and help in activities of daily living were associated with these outcomes as well. A prediction model for 90-day mortality was developed and showed satisfactory calibration and good discrimination [AUC 0.80 (95% CI 0.72–0.87)]. A cut-off point that selected 30% of patients at the highest risk yielded a sensitivity of 67.4%, a specificity of 75.3%, a positive predictive value of 28.5%, and a negative predictive value of 94.1%.
Conclusion
The shortened VMS-based screening instrument showed to be of good prognostic value for hospitalization and 90-day mortality. The prediction model for mortality showed promising results and will be further validated and optimized.
Purpose
Hypothermia is a serious condition in older adults. Knowledge of a priori chances of underlying diseases may affect initial management, hence prognosis. This systematic review provided an overview of existing literature on the incidences of underlying causes of hypothermia in older patients at the emergency department.
Methods
MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library, and Embase were searched up to February 1st, 2022. Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 65 years, emergency department setting, and body temperature < 36.0 degrees Celsius. Exclusion criteria were iatrogenic hypothermia, no underlying cause reported, and patient selection based on specific diseases. Title/abstract and full-text were screened and quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Tool. Data were presented using descriptive statistics and narrative analyses.
Results
Forty-one reports were included, including 6 cohort studies and 35 case reports. The 6 studies involved 2173 hypothermic patients, whose age varied from a mean of 67 to a median of 79 years and temperature from a median of 30.8 to a mean of 33.7 degrees Celsius. One study reported about primary hypothermia (incidence of 44%). Acute medical illness was often reported as underlying cause of secondary hypothermia (49–51%). Reported incidences of infection and sepsis ranged from 10 to 32%, of trauma up to 14%, and of alcohol intoxication from 5 to 26%.
Conclusion
Limited studies have been published regarding this topic, and the overall quality of the evidence was graded as low. Causes that should not be missed include acute medical illness, trauma, alcohol intoxication, primary hypothermia, thyroid failure, and drug-induced hypothermia.
Towards the development of a screening tool to enhance the detection of elder abuse and neglect by emergency medical technicians (EMTs): a qualitative study.
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