[1] Previous hypotheses had suggested that upwelled intrusions of nutrient-rich Gulf of Mexico slope water onto the West Florida Shelf (WFS) led to formation of red tides of Karenia brevis. However, coupled biophysical models of (1) wind-and buoyancy-driven circulation, (2) three phytoplankton groups (diatoms, K. brevis, and microflagellates), (3) these slope water supplies of nitrate and silicate, and (4) selective grazing stress by copepods and protozoans found that diatoms won in one 1998 case of no light limitation by colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM). The diatoms lost to K. brevis during another CDOM case of the models. In the real world, field data confirmed that diatoms were indeed the dominant phytoplankton after massive upwelling in 1998, when only a small red tide of K. brevis was observed. Over a 7-month period of the CDOM-free scenario the simulated total primary production of the phytoplankton community was $1.8 g C m À2 d À1 along the 40-m isobath of the northern WFS, with the largest accumulation of biomass on the Florida Middle Ground (FMG). Despite such photosynthesis, these models of the WFS yielded a net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere during spring and summer and suggested a small sink in the fall. With diatom losses of 90% of their daily carbon fixation to herbivores the simulation supported earlier impressions of a short, diatom-based food web on the FMG, where organic carbon content of the surficial sediments is tenfold those of the surrounding seabeds. Farther south, the simulated near-bottom pools of ammonium were highest in summer, when silicon regeneration was minimal, leading to temporary Si limitation of the diatoms. Termination of these upwelled pulses of production by diatoms and nonsiliceous microflagellates mainly resulted from nitrate exhaustion in the model, however, mimicking most del 15 PON observations in the field. Yet, the CDOM-free case of the models failed to replicate the observed small red tide in December 1998, tagged with the del 15 N signature of nitrogen fixation. A large red tide of K. brevis did form in the CDOMrich case, when estuarine supplies of CDOM favored the growth of the shade-adapted, ungrazed dinoflagellates. The usual formation of large harmful algal blooms of >1 ug chl L À1(10 5 cells L À1 ) in the southern part of the WFS, between Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, must instead depend upon local aeolian and estuarine supplies of nutrients and CDOM sun screen, not those from the shelf break. In the absence of slope water supplies, local upwelling instead focuses nitrate-poor innocula of co-occurring K. brevis and nitrogen fixers at coastal fronts for both aggregation and transfer of nutrients between these phytoplankton groups.

Changes in chlorophyll concentration distribution in surface waters of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (NEGOM) were examined using satellite and in situ data collected between November 1997 and August 2000. The patterns of chlorophyll distribution derived from in situ data consistently matched the satellite observations, even though the satellite-derived concentrations in coastal and offshore waters influenced by rivers were overestimated by the standard satellite data processing algorithms. River discharge and wind-driven upwelling were the major factors influencing surface chlorophyll-a variability for inshore regions. High in situ chlorophyll-a concentrations (≥1 mg m −3 ) occurred inshore and particularly near major river mouths during the summer seasons of 1998, 1999 and 2000. Plumes of Mississippi River water extended offshore to the southeast of the delta over distances >500 km from the river delta for maximum periods of 14 weeks between May and September every year and could reach the Florida Keys in certain years. The offshore transport of the plume was initiated by eastward or southeastward winds and then by separate anticyclonic eddies located southeast of the Mississippi delta and nearby shelf every year. Chlorophyll concentrations during the winter to spring transition in 1998 off Escambia, Choctawhatchee, Apalachicola and Suwannee Rivers and off Tampa Bay were up to 4 times higher than during the same periods in 1999 and 2000. This was related to higher freshwater discharge during the 1997-1998 winter-spring transition, coinciding with an El Niño-Southern Oscillation event, and to the unusually strong upwelling observed along the coast in spring 1998.

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