In most survival studies in NIDDM, microalbuminuria (urinary albumin excretion rate 20-200 microg/min) predicts early mortality; in cross-sectional studies, it is associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity. It is unclear, however, whether microalbuminuria is a risk factor for the development of CHD or the result of it, and little is known of the factors that predispose to the development of microalbuminuria in NIDDM. We examined these issues in a 7-year prospective study of a hospital-based cohort comprising 146 white NIDDM patients without clinical albuminuria. Microalbuminuria was a significant risk factor for both all-cause mortality (relative risk 3.94, 95% CI 2.04-7.62) and CHD mortality (relative risk 7.40, 95% CI 2.94-18.7) when adjusted for age only. Its independent predictive power did not persist, however, in age-adjusted multivariable survival analysis that allowed for the other significant risk factors: male sex, preexisting CHD, high levels of glycated hemoglobin, and high serum cholesterol. Among men free of CHD at baseline, the independent risk factors for CHD morbidity and mortality were microalbuminuria, current smoking, high diastolic blood pressure, and high serum cholesterol (all P < 0.05). For the 100 NIDDM patients with normoalbuminuria at baseline, the incidence of microalbuminuria was 29% over the 7-year period. In that group, fasting plasma glucose, current smoking, preexisting CHD, and high initial urinary albumin excretion rate were risk factors for the development of microalbuminuria (all P < 0.05). When men and women were analyzed separately, preexisting CHD was a significant risk factor in men only. These results demonstrate that microalbuminuria predicts incident clinical CHD in men with NIDDM. Preexisting CHD is also a risk factor for incident microalbuminuria in men, however, suggesting that microalbuminuria and CHD are not causally related but rather reflect common determinants.

This is the first comprehensive review of the evidence base for the treatment of paediatric IBD, highlighting the paucity of trials of high methodological quality. As a result, the development of clinical guidelines for managing children and young people with IBD must be consensus based, informed by the best-available evidence from the paediatric literature and high-quality data from the adult IBD literature, together with the clinical expertise and multidisciplinary experience of paediatric IBD experts.

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This paper examines the accuracy and properties of forecasts by the OECD for 24 countries and 8 variables.First the forecasts made in December of year t -1 for year t are examined, with the largest errors being for investment, industrial production and foreign balance. Next the way tbrecasts are revised between December and July is considered. Systematic revisions occur for Iceland, Turkey and Luxembourg. Finally the accuracy of forecasts made before, during and after the 1979 oil price rises axe compared, and no evidence of a worsening of accuracy is found.