Vulnerability assessments combine quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species or natural communities to current and future threats. When combined with the economic, ecological or evolutionary value of the species, vulnerability assessments quantify the relative risk to regional species and natural communities and can enable informed prioritization of conservation efforts. Vulnerability assessments are common practice in conservation biology, including the potential impacts of future climate scenarios. However, geographic variation in scenarios and vulnerabilities is rarely quantified. This gap is particularly limiting for informing ecosystem management given that conservation practices typically vary by sociopolitical boundaries rather than by ecological boundaries. To support prioritization of conservation actions across a range of spatial scales, we conducted the Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA) for four natural communities and eleven focal species around the Gulf of Mexico based on current and future threats from climate change and land-use practices out to 2060. We used the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value (SIVVA) tool to assess both natural community and species vulnerabilities. We observed greater variation across ecologically delineated subregions within the Gulf Coast of the U.S. than across climate scenarios. This novel finding suggests that future vulnerability assessments incorporate regional variation and that conservation prioritization may vary across ecological subregions. Across subregions and climate scenarios the most prominent threats were legacy effects, primarily from habitat loss and degradation, that compromised the adaptive capacity of species and natural communities. The second most important threats were future threats from sea-level rise. Our results suggest that the substantial threats species and natural communities face from climate change and sea-level rise would be within their adaptive capacity were it not for historic habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation.

The Gulf Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi is an anadromous species that inhabits Gulf of Mexico coastal waters from Louisiana to Florida and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Seasonal cues (e.g., freshwater discharge) determine the timing of spawning and migration and may influence the availability of critical habitat during winter months in six estuaries. Large information gaps, especially related to critical estuarine habitat for juveniles, hinder recovery efforts to protect these habitats and assess risks from emerging threats. Using Apalachicola Bay, Florida, as a model system, we developed and analyzed a preliminary Bayesian network model so that we could identify knowledge gaps (i.e., where expert knowledge was lacking) and data gaps (i.e., where data were unavailable) that limit the ability to assess the quantity of critical estuarine habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon. The model hypothesized habitat availability per winter month in estuarine habitat under alternative scenarios of river discharge and length of the winter foraging season. A search for geospatial data sets revealed that the largest gap involved salinity, temperature, and oxygen (i.e., water condition) monitoring data, with data available only for Apalachicola Bay. For the Apalachicola Bay model, data gaps prevented the development of 53% of water condition geospatial data sets and a sensitivity analysis showed that water condition data most limited the ability to predict habitat availability. Expert knowledge was low, and conditional certainty scores showed that the relationships with the lowest certainty were abiotic suitability and habitat availability. Reducing information gaps could aid the

The Perdido Key beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus trissyllepsis), Choctawhatchee beach mouse (P. p. allophrys), and St. Andrew beach mouse (P. p. peninsularis) are 3 federally endangered subspecies that inhabit coastal dunes of Alabama and Florida, USA. Conservation opportunities for these subspecies are limited and costly. Consequently, well‐targeted efforts are required to achieve their downlisting criteria. To aid the development of targeted management scenarios that are designed to achieve downlisting criteria, we developed a Bayesian network model that uses habitat characteristics to predict the probability of beach mouse presence at a 30‐m resolution across a portion of the Florida Panhandle. We then designed alternative management scenarios for a variety of habitat conditions for coastal dunes. Finally, we estimated how much area is needed to achieve the established downlisting criterion (i.e., habitat objective) and the amount of effort needed to achieve the habitat objective (i.e., management efficiency). The results suggest that after 7 years of post‐storm recolonization, habitat objectives were met for Perdido Key (within its Florida critical habitat) and Choctawhatchee beach mice. The St. Andrew beach mouse required 5.14 km2 of additional critical habitat to be protected and occupied. The St. Andrew beach mouse habitat objective might be achieved by first restoring protected critical habitat to good dune conditions and then protecting or restoring the unprotected critical habitat with the highest predicted probability of beach mouse presence. This scenario provided a 28% increase in management efficiency compared to a scenario that randomly protected or restored undeveloped unprotected critical habitat. In total, when coupled with established downlisting criteria, these quantitative and spatial decision support tools could provide insight into how much habitat is available, how much more is needed, and targeted conservation or restoration efforts that might efficiently achieve habitat objectives. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

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