Team collaboration and decision making have a significant role in the overall performance of complex system of systems (SoS). Improved systems engineering (SE) processes and tools are needed during the systems development lifecycle to make decisions and rapidly evaluate and assess multiple design alternatives to effectively select architectural design strategies that result in the highest mission performance. Therefore, the early and consistent evaluation of these strategies and collaborative team decisions are essential. The degree of utility of alternative decision strategy designs may vary given the condition, but conditions are not always considered when these decisions are being made. This article applies the SE principles of design for change and flexibility in an agent-based model for simulation of design alternatives for systems analysis and decision making in evaluating and selecting the decision(s) for SoS comprised of collaborative teams that result in higher mission performance. The authors apply the proposed agent-based model to test the flight delay within the SoS structure of the air transportation domain. The flight delays are due to the management strategies initiated by the air traffic facilities to balance the air demand and capacity when conditions are not normal (such as severe weather). The experimental results suggest that:(1) the current strategies may result in unnecessary delays and underdelivery of flights to the airport during the hours where demand is well below capacity; (2) aggressive strategies may have the reverse effect; and (3) longer-duration strategies have a more significant impact on delays during severe weather conditions.
K E Y W O R D Sagent-based simulation, system design and evaluation, system of systems 20
The ever-increasing complexity of large-scale, ubiquitous systems, and internetworked Systems of Systems (SoS), have resulted in non-linear challenges for systems engineering and program management such as interdependent, dynamic, and emergent behaviors that influence design and development cost. In order to invest, make decisions, and effectively manage technology developments, "should-cost" estimates are used to baseline systems to what is considered affordable over the lifecycle. In addition to a higher likelihood for overrun, complex systems traditionally require major acquisitions, budgets, and development schedules where failure results in increased cost consequences. Behavioral properties (such as emergence) can influence performance resulting in dynamic and unpredictable effects on networked platform operation, system capability, and mission effectiveness. Data analyzed from 526 major weapons programs and from subject-matter expert judgment are explored to propose: (1) a new approach to quantify these risks using prescriptive measures related to complexity, adaptability, and resilience, (2) identify leading indicators to reduce the likelihood of cost overrun, (3) suggest measurements based on research findings and systems heuristics to improve lifecycle cost estimation, and (4) present applications of Engineering Resilience to meet the growing complexity, interdependence, and scale of systems under constrained budgets with a growing demand for affordability. C⃝ 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng 00: 2016
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