Temperature is a strong driver of vector-borne disease transmission. Yet, for emerging arboviruses we lack fundamental knowledge on the relationship between transmission and temperature. Current models rely on the untested assumption that Zika virus responds similarly to dengue virus, potentially limiting our ability to accurately predict the spread of Zika. We conducted experiments to estimate the thermal performance of Zika virus (ZIKV) in field-derived Aedes aegypti across eight constant temperatures. We observed strong, unimodal effects of temperature on vector competence, extrinsic incubation period and mosquito survival. We used thermal responses of these traits to update an existing temperature-dependent model to infer temperature effects on ZIKV transmission. ZIKV transmission was optimized at 29°C, and had a thermal range of 22.7°C–34.7°C. Thus, as temperatures move towards the predicted thermal optimum (29°C) owing to climate change, urbanization or seasonality, Zika could expand north and into longer seasons. By contrast, areas that are near the thermal optimum were predicted to experience a decrease in overall environmental suitability. We also demonstrate that the predicted thermal minimum for Zika transmission is 5°C warmer than that of dengue, and current global estimates on the environmental suitability for Zika are greatly over-predicting its possible range.

Most statistical and mechanistic models used to predict mosquito-borne disease transmission incorporate climate drivers of disease transmission by utilizing environmental data collected at geographic scales that are potentially coarser than what mosquito populations may actually experience. Temperature and relative humidity can vary greatly between indoor and outdoor environments, and can be influenced strongly by variation in landscape features. In the Aedes albopictus system, we conducted a proof-of-concept study in the vicinity of the University of Georgia to explore the effects of fine-scale microclimate variation on mosquito life history and vectorial capacity (VC). We placed Ae. albopictus larvae in artificial pots distributed across three replicate sites within three different land uses–urban, suburban, and rural, which were characterized by high, intermediate, and low proportions of impervious surfaces. Data loggers were placed into each larval environment and in nearby vegetation to record daily variation in water and ambient temperature and relative humidity. The number of adults emerging from each pot and their body size and sex were recorded daily. We found mosquito microclimate to significantly vary across the season as well as with land use. Urban sites were in general warmer and less humid than suburban and rural sites, translating into decreased larval survival, smaller body sizes, and lower per capita growth rates of mosquitoes on urban sites. Dengue transmission potential was predicted to be higher in the summer than the fall. Additionally, the effects of land use on dengue transmission potential varied by season. Warm summers resulted in a higher predicted VC on the cooler, rural sites, while warmer, urban sites had a higher predicted VC during the cooler fall season.

The reemergence and growing burden of mosquito-borne virus infections have incited public fear and growing research efforts to understand the mechanisms of infection-associated health outcomes and to provide better approaches for mosquito vector control. While efforts to develop therapeutics, vaccines, and novel genetic mosquitocontrol technologies are underway, many important underlying ecological questions remain that could significantly enhance our understanding and ability to predict and prevent transmission. Here, we review the current knowledge about the transmission ecology of two recent arbovirus invaders, the chikungunya and Zika viruses. We introduce the viruses and mosquito vectors, highlighting viral biology, historical routes of transmission, and viral mechanisms facilitating rapid global invasion. In addition, we review factors contributing to vector global invasiveness and transmission efficiency. We conclude with a discussion of how human-induced biotic and abiotic environmental changes facilitate mosquito-borne virus transmission, emphasizing critical gaps in understanding. These knowledge gaps are tremendous; much of our data on basic mosquito ecology in the field predate 1960, and the mosquitoes themselves, as well as the world they live in, have substantially changed. A concerted investment in understanding the basic ecology of these vectors, which serve as the main drivers of pathogen transmission in both wildlife and human populations, is now more important than ever.

The explosive spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) through South and Central America has been linked to an increase in congenital birth defects, specifically microcephaly. Representative rodent models for investigating infections include direct central nervous system (CNS) injections late in pregnancy and transplacental transmission in immunodeficient mice. Microcephaly in humans may be the result of infection occurring early in pregnancy, therefore recapitulating that the human course of ZIKV infection should include normal embryo exposed to ZIKV during the first trimester. In ovo development of the chicken embryo closely mirrors human fetal neurodevelopment and, as a comparative model, could provide key insights into both temporal and pathophysiological effects of ZIKV. Chick embryos were directly infected early and throughout incubation with ZIKV isolated from a Mexican mosquito in January 2016. High doses of virus caused embryonic lethality. In a subset of lower dosed embryos, replicating ZIKV was present in various organs, including the CNS, throughout development. Surviving ZIKV-infected embryos presented a microcephaly-like phenotype. Chick embryos were longitudinally monitored by magnetic resonance imaging that documented CNS structural malformations, including enlarged ventricles (30% increase) and stunted cortical growth (decreased telencephalon by 18%, brain stem by 32%, and total brain volume by 18%), on both embryonic day 15 (E15) and E20 of development. ZIKV-induced microcephaly was observed with inoculations of as few as 2-20 viral particles. The chick embryo model presented ZIKV embryonic lethal effects and progressive CNS damage similar to microcephaly.

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