This study investigates the relationship between the real exchange rate (RER) and economic growth in China applying a cointegrated VAR (CVAR) model. However, in contrast to the assumptions of trade partners, this paper finds that the Chinese economy has not benefited from the lower exchange rate of the RMB, and no direct linkages exist between the RER and growth in the long run. Interestingly, it appears that the Chinese economy is stimulated by the expansion of exports and inflow of foreign capital according to the empirical evidence, which also suggests that the long run equilibrium RER is jointly determined by the foreign trade, foreign reserves and the foreign direct investment. In addition, the 2005 RMB policy reform did not show any significant impact on the RER, but instead contributed to the steady economic growth. It is clear that, after the 2008 world crisis, the RMB exchange rates were largely dependent on the enhancing of the national strength and inflow of foreign capital, rather than the slow increase in foreign trade. As for policy implications, China may insist on the managed floating exchange rate policy making limited adjustments to the currency's daily floating range in response to the pressures from trade partners. JEL Codes: F3, O24, F43, C32
This paper investigates the impact of the US and China's foreign aids to Africa on trade flows between donor and recipient countries. Evidence from the gravity model estimates reveals that the two donors' exports are strengthened by their aids to African partners.Interestingly, China's aid shows a positive effect on its total volume of trade and imports from Africa, while the aid from the US exhibits little impact on the US-Africa total trade and its imports from Africa. A possible explanation for such a difference could be due to the dissimilar national interests of donors in Africa. This study finally suggests that African countries should accelerate the pace of advancing domestic economies and rely less on foreign assistance, in order to establish a fairer and more equal international economic order. JEL Classification: F35, P33
This study investigates the asymmetric unemployment-output tradeoff in the Eurozone.Building upon the augmented Okun's law framework, the relationships between unemployment and output cannot be correctly specified in the static linear, static asymmetric and dynamic linear regressions. By contrast, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is well-specified and in this case indicates that the nature of Okun's law is asymmetric.For the Eurozone, the NARDL estimates demonstrate that labour markets quickly respond to cyclical outputs in a short period, while the adjustments towards new equilibrium become weak in the long run. Furthermore, the cross-sectional analysis of long run asymmetries indicates that government spending and trade balance are key factors affecting the asymmetric unemployment-output tradeoff. Thus, these results seem to suggest that, in spite of the fact that member states lack monetary sovereignty, flexible application of fiscal reforms or labour market reforms could help to reduce asymmetric effects. JEL Codes: C22, E32, J64.Keywords: unemployment-output tradeoff, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL), asymmetry determinants. * We thank Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo and Hanan Naser for their insightful comments on a previous version. The remaining errors are our own.
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