On the basis of the triple exponential smoothing prediction model, this paper introduces the reverse prediction idea and establishes the reverse triple exponential smoothing model by setting parameters such as threshold value and iteration times and reasonably correcting its initial value. This method can effectively reduce the error of early prediction value. At the same time, aiming at the problem that the predicting advantage of the reverse triple exponential smoothing model weakens in the later period, Markov theory is introduced to correct its error value, and an improved prediction model combining inverse exponential smoothing and Markov chain is further established. The improved model combines the advantages of index model trend prediction and Markov fluctuation prediction, and the prediction accuracy and stability of the model are significantly improved through case tests.

As an essential and challenging technology of fault prediction and health management(PHM), fault prediction technology has been a research focus in the field of fault diagnosis. However, the current model-based fault prediction technology and data-driven fault prediction technology have some limitations, and it is difficult to effectively apply them in practice. Therefore, this paper combines the advantages of two kinds of fault prediction technology, sets the fault distribution function as the membership function of the adaptive fuzzy neural network based on the full analysis of the fault mechanism. The use of the fault distribution function to highly generalize the law of fault occurrence, and the strong self-learning ability of the neural network can effectively tap the potential fault information of the fault data, thereby using the fault distribution function to fit the fault data, and forming a set of membership functions by presetting a variety of membership functions, so as to expand the applicability of the proposed model in fault prediction. The experimental results show that the fault prediction model proposed in this paper has the advantages of high prediction accuracy, fast convergence speed and good applicability. INDEX TERMS Adaptive fuzzy neural network, fault mechanism, fault prediction, membership function.

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