We describe a physics-based learning model for predicting the immunogenicity of Cytotoxic T Lymphocyte (CTL) epitopes derived from diverse pathogens, given a Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) genotype. The model was trained and tested on experimental data on the relative immunodominance of CTL epitopes in Human Immunodeficiency Virus infection. The method is more accurate than publicly available models. Our model predicts that only a fraction of SARS-CoV-2 epitopes that have been predicted to bind to HLA molecules is immunogenic. The immunogenic CTL epitopes across all SARS-CoV-2 proteins are predicted to provide broad population coverage, but the immunogenic epitopes in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein alone are unlikely to do so. Our model predicts that several immunogenic SARS-CoV-2 CTL epitopes are identical to those contained in low-pathogenicity coronaviruses circulating in the population. Thus, we suggest that some level of CTL immunity against COVID-19 may be present in some individuals prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Rapid diagnostics that can accurately inform patients of disease risk and protection are critical to mitigating the spread of the current COVID-19 pandemic and future infectious disease outbreaks. To be effective, such diagnostics must rely on simple, cost-effective, and widely available equipment and should be compatible with existing telehealth infrastructure to facilitate data access and remote care. Commercial glucometers are an established detection technology that can overcome the cost, time, and trained personnel requirements of current benchtop-based antibody serology assays when paired with reporter molecules that catalyze glucose conversion. To this end, we developed an enzymatic reporter that, when bound to disease-specific patient antibodies, produces glucose in proportion to the level of antibodies present in the patient sample. Although a straightforward concept, the coupling of enzymatic reporters to secondary antibodies or antigens often results in low yields, indeterminant stoichiometry, reduced target binding, and poor catalytic efficiency. Our enzymatic reporter is a novel fusion protein that comprises an antihuman immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody genetically fused to two invertase molecules. The resulting fusion protein retains the binding affinity and catalytic activity of the constituent proteins and serves as an accurate reporter for immunoassays. Using this fusion, we demonstrate quantitative glucometer-based measurement of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies in blinded clinical sample training sets. Our results demonstrate the ability to detect SARS-CoV-2-specific IgGs in patient serum with precise agreement to benchmark commercial immunoassays. Because our fusion protein binds all human IgG isotypes, it represents a versatile tool for detection of disease-specific antibodies in a broad range of biomedical applications.

The introduction of vaccines has inspired new hope in the battle against SARS-CoV-2. However, the emergence of viral variants, in the absence of potent antivirals, has left the world struggling with the uncertain nature of this disease. Antibodies currently represent the strongest correlate of immunity against COVID-19, thus we profiled the earliest humoral signatures in a large cohort of severe and asymptomatic COVID-19 individuals. While a SARS-CoV-2-specific immune response evolved rapidly in survivors of COVID-19, non-survivors exhibited blunted and delayed humoral immune evolution, particularly with respect to S2-specific antibody evolution. Given the conservation of S2 across β-coronaviruses, we found the early development of SARS-CoV-2-specific immunity occurred in tandem with pre-existing common β-coronavirus OC43 humoral immunity in survivors, which was selectively also expanded in individuals that develop paucisymptomatic infection. These data point to the importance of cross-coronavirus immunity as a correlate of protection against COVID-19.

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Gardasil® (Merck) and Cervarix® (GlaxoSmithKline) both provide protection against infection with Human Papillomavirus 16 (HPV16) and Human Papillomavirus 18 (HPV18), that account for around 70% of cervical cancers. Both vaccines have been shown to induce high levels of neutralizing antibodies and are known to protect against progression beyond cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2+), although Cervarix® has been linked to enhanced protection from progression. However, beyond the transmission-blocking activity of neutralizing antibodies against HPV, no clear correlate of protection has been defined that may explain persistent control and clearance elicited by HPV vaccines. Beyond blocking, antibodies contribute to antiviral activity via the recruitment of the cytotoxic and opsonophagocytic power of the immune system. Thus, here, we used systems serology to comprehensively profile Gardasil®- and Cervarix®- induced antibody subclass, isotype, Fc-receptor binding, and Fc-effector functions against the HPV16 and HPV18 major capsid protein (L1). Overall, both vaccines induced robust functional humoral immune responses against both HPV16 and HPV18. However, Cervarix® elicited higher IgG3 and antibody-dependent complement activating responses, and an overall more coordinated response between HPV16 and 18 compared to Gardasil®, potentially related to the distinct adjuvants delivered with the vaccines. Thus, these data point to robust Fc-effector functions induced by both Gardasil® and Cervarix®, albeit with enhanced coordination observed with Cervarix®, potentially underlying immunological correlates of post-infection control of HPV.