BackgroundThe recent decline in malaria incidence in many African countries has been attributed to the provision of prompt and effective anti-malarial treatment using artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to the widespread distribution of long-lasting, insecticide-treated bed nets (LLINs). At a malaria vaccine-testing site in Bandiagara, Mali, ACT was introduced in 2004, and LLINs have been distributed free of charge since 2007 to infants after they complete the Expanded Programme of Immunization (EPI) schedule and to pregnant women receiving antenatal care. These strategies may have an impact on malaria incidence.MethodsTo document malaria incidence, a cohort of 400 children aged 0 to 14 years was followed for three to four years up to July 2013. Monthly cross-sectional surveys were done to measure the prevalence of malaria infection and anaemia. Clinical disease was measured both actively and passively through continuous availability of primary medical care. Measured outcomes included asymptomatic Plasmodium infection, anaemia and clinical malaria episodes.ResultsThe incidence rate of clinical malaria varied significantly from June 2009 to July 2013 without a clear downward trend. A sharp seasonality in malaria illness incidence was observed with higher clinical malaria incidence rates during the rainy season. Parasite and anaemia point prevalence also showed seasonal variation with much higher prevalence rates during rainy seasons compared to dry seasons.ConclusionsDespite the scaling up of malaria prevention and treatment, including the widespread use of bed nets, better diagnosis and wider availability of ACT, malaria incidence did not decrease in Bandiagara during the study period.

Abstract.In areas of seasonal malaria transmission, the incidence rate of malaria infection is presumed to be near zero at the end of the dry season. Asymptomatic individuals may constitute a major parasite reservoir during this time. We conducted a longitudinal analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of clinical malaria and asymptomatic parasitemia over time in a Malian town to highlight these malaria transmission dynamics. For a cohort of 300 rural children followed over 2009–2014, periodicity and phase shift between malaria and rainfall were determined by spectral analysis. Spatial risk clusters of clinical episodes or carriage were identified. A nested-case-control study was conducted to assess the parasite carriage factors. Malaria infection persisted over the entire year with seasonal peaks. High transmission periods began 2–3 months after the rains began. A cluster with a low risk of clinical malaria in the town center persisted in high and low transmission periods. Throughout 2009–2014, cluster locations did not vary from year to year. Asymptomatic and gametocyte carriage were persistent, even during low transmission periods. For high transmission periods, the ratio of asymptomatic to clinical cases was approximately 0.5, but was five times higher during low transmission periods. Clinical episodes at previous high transmission periods were a protective factor for asymptomatic carriage, but carrying parasites without symptoms at a previous high transmission period was a risk factor for asymptomatic carriage. Stable malaria transmission was associated with sustained asymptomatic carriage during dry seasons. Control strategies should target persistent low-level parasitemia clusters to interrupt transmission.

Phlebotomus duboscqi is the principle vector of Leishmania major, the causative agent of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), in West Africa and is the suspected vector in Mali. Although found throughout the country the seasonality and infection prevalence of P. duboscqi has not been established in Mali. We conducted a three year study in two neighboring villages, Kemena and Sougoula, in Central Mali, an area with a leishmanin skin test positivity of up to 45%. During the first year, we evaluated the overall diversity of sand flies. Of 18,595 flies collected, 12,952 (69%) belonged to 12 species of Sergentomyia and 5,643 (31%) to two species of the genus Phlebotomus, P. duboscqi and P. rodhaini. Of those, P. duboscqi was the most abundant, representing 99% of the collected Phlebotomus species. P. duboscqi was the primary sand fly collected inside dwellings, mostly by resting site collection. The seasonality and infection prevalence of P. duboscqi was monitored over two consecutive years. P. dubsocqi were collected throughout the year. Using a quasi-Poisson model we observed a significant annual (year 1 to year 2), seasonal (monthly) and village effect (Kemena versus Sougoula) on the number of collected P. duboscqi. The significant seasonal effect of the quasi-Poisson model reflects two seasonal collection peaks in May-July and October-November. The infection status of pooled P. duboscqi females was determined by PCR. The infection prevalence of pooled females, estimated using the maximum likelihood estimate of prevalence, was 2.7% in Kemena and Sougoula. Based on the PCR product size, L. major was identified as the only species found in flies from the two villages. This was confirmed by sequence alignment of a subset of PCR products from infected flies to known Leishmania species, incriminating P. duboscqi as the vector of CL in Mali.

BackgroundMuch of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods.Methodology/Principal FindingsIn this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996–06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%.Conclusions/SignificanceThe multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions, as well as monitoring of disease dynamics modification. Therefore, these forecasts could improve infectious diseases management in the district of Niono, Mali, and elsewhere in the Sahel.

Following Plasmodium falciparum infection, individuals can remain asymptomatic, present with mild fever in uncomplicated malaria cases, or show one or more severe malaria symptoms. Several studies have investigated associations between parasite transcription and clinical severity, but no broad conclusions have yet been drawn. Here, we apply a series of bioinformatic approaches based on P. falciparum’s tightly regulated transcriptional pattern during its ~48-hour intraerythrocytic developmental cycle (IDC) to publicly available transcriptomes of parasites obtained from malaria cases of differing clinical severity across multiple studies. Our analysis shows that within each IDC, the circulation time of infected erythrocytes without sequestering to endothelial cells decreases with increasing parasitaemia or disease severity. Accordingly, we find that the size of circulating infected erythrocytes is inversely related to parasite density and disease severity. We propose that enhanced adhesiveness of infected erythrocytes leads to a rapid increase in parasite burden, promoting higher parasitaemia and increased disease severity.