Chytridiomycosis is linked to the worldwide decline of amphibians, yet little is known about the demographic effects of the disease. We collected capture-recapture data on three populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas [Bufo = Anaxyrus]) in the Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.). Two of the populations were infected with chytridiomycosis and one was not. We examined the effect of the presence of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]; the agent of chytridiomycosis) on survival probability and population growth rate. Toads that were infected with Bd had lower average annual survival probability than uninfected individuals at sites where Bd was detected, which suggests chytridiomycosis may reduce survival by 31-42% in wild boreal toads. Toads that were negative for Bd at infected sites had survival probabilities comparable to toads at the uninfected site. Evidence that environmental covariates (particularly cold temperatures during the breeding season) influenced toad survival was weak. The number of individuals in diseased populations declined by 5-7%/year over the 6 years of the study, whereas the uninfected population had comparatively stable population growth. Our data suggest that the presence of Bd in these toad populations is not causing rapid population declines. Rather, chytridiomycosis appears to be functioning as a low-level, chronic disease whereby some infected individuals survive but the overall population effects are still negative. Our results show that some amphibian populations may be coexisting with Bd and highlight the importance of quantitative assessments of survival in diseased animal populations.
Male boreal toads (Bufo boreas) are thought to return to the breeding site every year but, if absent in a particular year, will be more likely to return the following year. Using Pollock's robust design we estimated temporary emigration (the probability a male toad is absent from a breeding site in a given year) at three locations in Colorado, USA: two in Rocky Mountain National Park and one in Chaffee County. We present data that suggest that not all male toads return to the breeding site every year. Our analyses indicate that temporary emigration varies by site and time (for example, from 1992 to 1998, the probability of temporary emigration ranged from 10% to 29% and from 3% to 95% at Lost Lake and Kettle Tarn, respectively). Although the results provide weak evidence that males are more likely to return after a year's hiatus, a general pattern of state-dependent temporary emigration was not supported. We also hypothesized relationships between temporary emigration and a number of weather variables. While some competitive models included weather covariates, imprecise and variable estimates of the effects of these covariates precluded fully defining their impact on temporary emigration.
Summary 1.Estimates of demographic parameters for females, in many organisms, are sparse. This is particularly worrisome as more and more species are faced with high extinction probabilities and conservation increasingly depends on actions dictated by complex predictive models that require accurate estimates of demographic parameters for each sex and species. 2. This study assesses demographic parameters, specifically temporary emigration and survival, for females, a class that has been difficult to investigate historically because of lack of data. Amphibians provide a particularly good example because there is global concern about amphibian decline; yet most demographic parameter estimates are based on data from males, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. 3. We use 10 years of capture-recapture data from boreal toads (Bufo boreas) and the multi-state open robust design model to provide evidence for the occurrence of skipped breeding opportunities (i.e. temporary emigration) in females. This is the first time that the open robust design model has been applied to an analysis of an amphibian population that we are aware of. 4. We determined that the transition from breeder to non-breeder is obligate and the probability of a non-breeder remaining a non-breeder is 64%; thus, temporary emigration is first-order Markovian in nature, where breeding probability is dependent on the previous year's activity, i.e. if a female did not breed in year one, there is a 36% chance that she will breed in year two. With temporary emigration accounted for, we estimated between-year female survival at 87%. 5. Establishing the occurrence of temporary emigration not only reduces bias in estimates of survival probabilities but also provides information about expected breeding attempts by females, a critical element in understanding the ecology of an organism and the impacts of outside stressors and conservation actions.
Comparative studies of mortality in the wild are necessary to understand the evolution of aging; yet, ectothermic tetrapods are underrepresented in this comparative landscape, despite their suitability for testing evolutionary hypotheses. We present a study of aging rates and longevity across wild tetrapod ectotherms, using data from 107 populations (77 species) of nonavian reptiles and amphibians. We test hypotheses of how thermoregulatory mode, environmental temperature, protective phenotypes, and pace of life history contribute to demographic aging. Controlling for phylogeny and body size, ectotherms display a higher diversity of aging rates compared with endotherms and include phylogenetically widespread evidence of negligible aging. Protective phenotypes and life-history strategies further explain macroevolutionary patterns of aging. Analyzing ectothermic tetrapods in a comparative context enhances our understanding of the evolution of aging.
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