The solar dynamo is known to be associated with several periodicities, with the nearly 11/22 yr cycle being the most pronounced one. Even though these quasiperiodic variations of solar activity have been attributed to the underlying dynamo action in the Sun's interior, a fundamental theoretical description of these cycles is still elusive. Here, we present a new possible direction in understanding the Sun's cycles based on resonant nonlinear interactions among magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Rossby waves. The WKB theory for dispersive waves is applied to magnetohydrodynamic shallow-water equations describing the dynamics of the solar tachocline, and the reduced dynamics of a resonant triad composed of MHD Rossby waves embedded in constant toroidal magnetic field is analyzed. In the conservative case, the wave amplitudes evolve periodically in time, with periods on the order of the dominant solar activity timescale (∼11 yr). In addition, the presence of linear forcings representative of either convection or instabilities of meridionally varying background states appears to be crucial in balancing dissipation and thus sustaining the periodic oscillations of wave amplitudes associated with resonant triad interactions. Examination of the linear theory of MHD Rossby waves embedded in a latitudinally varying mean flow demonstrates that MHD Rossby waves propagate toward the equator in a waveguide from −35• to 35• in latitude, showing a remarkable resemblance to the structure of the butterfly diagram of the solar activity. Therefore, we argue that resonant nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic Rossby wave interactions might significantly contribute to the observed cycles of magnetic solar activity.

Magnetic helicity is a measure of the entanglement of magnetic field lines used to characterize the complexity of solar active region (AR) magnetic fields. Previous attempts to use helicity-based indicators to predict solar eruptive/flaring events have shown promise but not been universally successful. Here we investigate the use of a quantity associated with the magnetic helicity, the magnetic winding, as a means to predict flaring activity. This quantity represents the fundamental entanglement of magnetic field lines and is independent of the magnetic field strength. We use vector magnetogram data derived from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) to calculate the evolution and distribution of the magnetic winding flux associated with five different ARs, three of them with little flaring activity/nonflaring (AR 11318, AR 12119, AR 12285) and two highly active with X-class flares (AR 11158, AR 12673). We decompose these quantities into “current-carrying” and “potential” parts. It is shown that the ARs that show flaring/eruptive activity have significant contributions to the winding input from the current-carrying part of the field. A significant and rapid input of current-carrying winding is found to be a precursor of flaring/eruptive activity, and, in conjunction with the helicity, sharp inputs of both quantities are found to precede individual flaring events by several hours. This suggests that the emergence/submergence of topologically complex current-carrying field is an important element for the ignition of AR flaring.

The Schwabe cycle of solar activity exhibits modulations and frequency fluctuations on slow time scales of centuries and millennia. Plausible physical explanations for the cause of these long-term variations of the solar cycle are still elusive, with possible theories including stochasticity of alpha effect and fluctuations of the differential rotation. It has been suggested recently in the literature that there exists a possible relation between the spatio-temporal structure of Solar cycle and the nonlinear dynamics of magnetohydrodynamic Rossby waves at the solar tachocline, including both wave-wave and wave-mean flow interactions. Here we extend the nonlinear theory of MHD Rossby waves presented in a previous article to take into account long term modulation effects due to a recently discovered mechanism that allows significant energy transfers throughout different wave triads: the precession resonance mechanism. We have found a large number of Rossby-Haurwitz wave triads whose frequency mismatches are compatible with the solar cycle frequency. Consequently, by analyzing the reduced dynamics of two triads coupled by a single mode (five-wave system), we have demonstrated that in the amplitude regime in which precession resonance occurs, the energy transfer throughout the system yields significant long-term modulations on the main ∼ 11yr period associated with intra-triad energy exchanges. We further show that such modulations display an inverse relationship between the characteristic wave amplitude and the period of intra-triad energy exchanges, which is consistent with the Waldmeier's law for the solar cycle. In the presence of a constant forcing and dissipation, the five-wave system in the precession resonance regime exhibits irregular amplitude fluctuations with some periods resembling the Grand Minimum states.

The magnetic nature of the formation of solar active regions lies at the heart of understanding solar activity and, in particular, solar eruptions. A widespread model, used in many theoretical studies, simulations and the interpretation of observations, is that the basic structure of an active region is created by the emergence of a large tube of pre-twisted magnetic field. Despite plausible reasons and the availability of various proxies suggesting the accuracy of this model, there has not yet been a methodology that can clearly and directly identify the emergence of large pre-twisted magnetic flux tubes. Here, we present a clear signature of the emergence of pre-twisted magnetic flux tubes by investigating a robust topological quantity, called magnetic winding, in solar observations. This quantity detects the emerging magnetic topology despite the significant deformation experienced by the emerging magnetic field. Magnetic winding complements existing measures, such as magnetic helicity, by providing distinct information about field line topology, thus allowing for the direct identification of emerging twisted magnetic flux tubes.

Abstract. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the main controller of the weather in the tropics on intraseasonal timescales, and recent research provides evidence that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) influences the MJO interannual variability. However, the physical mechanisms behind this interaction are not completely understood. Recent studies on the normal-mode structure of the MJO indicate the contribution of global-scale Kelvin and Rossby waves. In this study we test whether these MJO-related normal modes are affected by the QBO and stratospheric ozone. The partial directed coherence method was used and enabled us to probe the direction and frequency of the interactions. It was found that equatorial stratospheric ozone and stratospheric zonal winds are connected with the MJO at periods of 1–2 months and 1.5–2.5 years. We explore the role of normal-mode interactions behind the stratosphere–troposphere coupling by performing a linear regression between the MJO–QBO indices and the amplitudes of the normal modes of the atmosphere obtained by projections on a normal-mode basis using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The MJO is dominated by symmetric Rossby modes but is also influenced by Kelvin and asymmetric Rossby modes. The QBO is mostly explained by westward-propagating inertio-gravity waves and asymmetric Rossby waves. We explore the previous results by identifying interactions between those modes and between the modes and the ozone concentration. In particular, westward inertio-gravity waves, associated with the QBO, influence the MJO on interannual timescales. MJO-related modes, such as Kelvin waves and Rossby waves with a symmetric wind structure with respect to the Equator, are shown to have significantly different dynamics during MJO events depending on the phase of the QBO.