Summary Risk analysis has become an integral part of the decision-making process within the Petroleum Industry. Today, petroleum engineers, geoscientists and project managers are using risking tools to evaluate the economic viability of both exploration and development projects. Conoco drilling engineers have combined a drilling cost spread-sheet along with a forecasting and risk analysis program to predict the range of both cost and days necessary to drill a well. The model utilizes risk analysis and incorporates Monte Carlo simulation along with regional cost data to generate drilling cost and time requirements for a well. Using this model, the Conoco drilling engineers effectively evaluate multiple drilling alternatives. subsequently, more informed risk related recommendations from the drilling engineers aids management in the decision-making process of drilling a prospect or developing a project This paper describes the spreadsheet and the risk analysis program used to generate the range of costs and days for a given well. In addition, the paper offers an example of the output data generated from the programs with an interpretation for a sample well. Introduction Historically, drilling engineers have relied on a deterministic approach to developing drilling cost estimates. The strength to this method is its simplicity and clearly set assumptions. To account for uncertainties and risk, the drilling engineer would build a "base" ease cost The "high" and "low" cost estimates were then developed using percentage additions or subtractions from the "base" case. Unfortunately, this approach does not describe the full range of possible outcomes or quantify the likelihood of any particular outcome. In an effort to demonstrate the drilling risks of drilling a prospect or developing a project to management, Conoco drilling engineers have begun performing risk analysis on the drilling expenditures and time through the use of a new drilling cost spreadsheet, a forecasting and risk analysis program which uses Monte Carlo simulation and a standardized methodology for data usage. Spreadsheet Model Our main spreadsheet model for probabilistic drilling cost estimating has a total of 152 line items subdivided into 29 major feature categories (Fig. 1). There are also two "breakout" spreadsheets for providing additional detail (one for detailing the estimate of total days on the well and one for detailing the casing program) (Figs. 2 and 3) for use by the engineer preparing the cost estimate if he or she desires to itemize such detail. Included into our spreadsheet is a summary page and a query sort for the "deterministic" or "most likely" values (cost estimates) of the 29 major feature categories. This query sort, which we call the "Big Rock Sort" lists in descending order, according to cost, the 29 major feature categories, calculates the percentage of the total for each such major feature category, and lists a cumulative percentage for the sorted features (Fig. 4). The "Big Rock Sort" enables us to conveniently identify the "key" cost drivers. We consider those features which account for 80 percent of the total cost estimate as "big rocks", and generally find that relatively few (generally less than 50 percent) of the features fall into our "big rock" category. We have also found that the particular features which fall into the big rock category vary on a case by case basis. To improve the quality of our estimate, we invest additional effort to describe the uncertainty for those features which show up as "big rocks". Our rule-of-thumb in this regard is that we deal probabilistically with those elements of the cost estimate that make up the top 80 percent of the total cost estimate.

TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 01-972-952-9435. AbstractThis paper discusses the design and testing of 10 ¾-in. and 7 5/8-in. casing directional drilling equipment and procedures that ConocoPhillips plans to use on a mature North Sea asset. ConocoPhillips has worked with Tesco Corp. and Schlumberger in assembling the tools necessary to complete this task. These include: downhole casing drilling tools, underreamers, positive displacement motors, MWD tools, rotary steerable systems (RSS), and high capacity winches for this work. Testing this equipment in commercial North Sea operations is prohibitively expensive. Therefore, tests were conducted at a drilling test facility near Cameron, Texas, where operations were conducted over a wide range of rotating speed, weight and flow conditions as well as inclinations from vertical to horizontal. High frequency surface and downhole drilling mechanics measurements assisted in diagnosing problems and improving the systems. The project serves as a blueprint for managing technical developments among multiple operators and service companies.

TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 1.972.952.9435. AbstractThis paper discusses the design and testing of 10 ¾-in. and 7 5/8-in. casing directional drilling equipment and procedures that ConocoPhillips plans to use on a mature North Sea asset. ConocoPhillips has worked with Tesco Corp. and Schlumberger in building the tools necessary to complete this task. These include: downhole casing drilling tools, underreamers, positive displacement motors, MWD tools, rotary steerable systems (RSS), and high capacity winches for this work. Testing this equipment in commercial North Sea operations is prohibitively expensive. Therefore, tests were conducted at a drilling test facility near Cameron, Texas, where operations were conducted over a wide range of rotating speed, weight and flow conditions as well as inclinations from vertical to horizontal. High frequency surface and downhole drilling mechanics measurements were made that allowed for diagnosing problems and improving the systems.

This paper will outline the application of a breakthrough technology to address Top Drive washpipe durability in high temperature and high pressure (HPHT) wells. The introduction, application, and submission of a performance comparison to support the advancement/proliferation of this technology are presented from an operating company's perspective. Problem Since the introduction of Top Drive Systems in the late 1980's, a consistent limiting factor has been the durability of the washpipe seal mechanism, particularly in HPHT + high speed drilling applications. This durability issue has greatly affected the efficiency of the circulation system's integrity, and it has also decreased overall operating efficiencies. Washpipe failures occurring during critical operations, such as during well control situations, can increase risk to personnel and equipment. Solution National Oilwell Varco has introduced a technical solution that utilizes mechanical sealing technology developed outside the oil and gas industry. This technology has proven itself in joint-effort field trials by ConocoPhillips and Ensco in the North Sea. The challenge is to promote the use of the technology worldwide to solve the habitual washpipe durability problem. Challenges to Implementation Traditionally, new technology is difficult to implement in the oilfield. The intent of this paper is to help overcome typical barriers and help rush this solution out to positively impact the drilling fleet as quickly as possible. Conclusions A reliable sealing mechanism has been identified to address the washpipe durability issues, and field trials on this new product have yielded positive results. The typical barriers to product implementation were minimized by applying previous lessons-learned, with successes in operations, cost savings, and safety. Introduction Washpipe technology has remained rather stagnant since its introduction on conventional swivel and kelly drilling applications, and then subsequently adapted to Top Drive Systems in the early 1980's. Failure rates after 200 to 600 hours have become an accepted norm in many drilling operations. To compound the issue, as the industry moves into applications of increased pressure, temperature and speed, a washpipe's seal life has significantly decreased, often failing while operating in the most critical parts of the well. Through a partnership between National Oilwell Varco (NOV) and the Deublin®Company, a mechanical seal washpipe has been developed as an answer to these issues, resulting in significantly higher run times at a variety of pressures, temperatures and rotating speeds.

TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 1.972.952.9435. AbstractThis paper discusses the design and testing of 10 ¾-in. and 7 5/8-in. casing directional drilling equipment and procedures that ConocoPhillips plans to use on a mature North Sea asset. ConocoPhillips has worked with Tesco Corp. and Schlumberger in building the tools necessary to complete this task. These include: downhole casing drilling tools, underreamers, positive displacement motors, MWD tools, rotary steerable systems (RSS), and high capacity winches for this work. Testing this equipment in commercial North Sea operations is prohibitively expensive. Therefore, tests were conducted at a drilling test facility near Cameron, Texas, where operations were conducted over a wide range of rotating speed, weight and flow conditions as well as inclinations from vertical to horizontal. High frequency surface and downhole drilling mechanics measurements were made that allowed for diagnosing problems and improving the systems.