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The total cost of structural fires and bushfires in Australia was estimated at around A$18 billion in 2010, or about 1.5 per cent of GDP. This cost includes some A$16 billion devoted to managing the risk. At the same time, Australia's fire fatality rate of 0.6 per 100 000 of population, already low by international standards, has proved resistant to increasing expenditure on fire management and protection. Following a concern that this expenditure might encompass an overinvestment compared with the real risk, this paper examines the regulatory cost of this investment. Since on average poorer people have worse health outcomes, and governments or companies have no alternative but to pass on increased costs or taxes, it is possible to estimate the lives forgone, on account of an increased mortality rate, of any overinvestment.

The modelling of the unannounced evacuation of two Marks & Spencer stores conducted by the University of Ulster with the public in the stores using the evacuation simulation model SIMULEX is presented. The occupant behaviour data and information was recorded in each evacuation by means of strategically positioned cameras which recorded the entire evacuation, and questionnaires which were administered to the evacuees as they exited the building. Observed evacuation times are compared with evacuation simulation scenarios and discussed. Future improvements to the simulation model are identified. Issues with respect to design evacuation scenarios and evacuation strategies are raised. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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