Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081–2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.

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Climate change has been shown to impact marine fish populations and communities.With small population sizes, long reproduction times, and a rapidly warming habitat, thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata) could be particularly vulnerable. To examine this possibility, we used a two-stage generalized additive model to project future thorny skate abundances under two different climate scenarios. This is the first study in the northeastern United States to compare projections based on different survey methods (bottom trawl and longline), and results were heavily impacted by survey methodology. Models trained with the NOAA Bottom Trawl Survey projected a decrease in abundance of ~60%-80% in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. With aggressive mitigation (RCP 4.5), these decreases could be reduced to ~35%-45%. Models trained with a recent NOAA longline survey indicated that thorny skate abundance would be reduced 22% and 37% under business as usual and mitigation, respectively. There are substantial methodological differences between the two data sets, including capture technique and efficiency, total habitat coverage, and spatio-temporal coverage. This underscores the importance of continued, methodologically diverse surveys on the Northeast US continental shelf.Our results indicate that climate change will continue to negatively impact thorny skate populations by reducing the amount of thermally suitable habitat in the southern extent of their range. This information should be considered in future management decisions.