Science-based, multinational management of the Baltic Sea offers lessons on amelioration of highly disturbed marine ecosystems.

Recent theoretical work suggests that small-scale turbulence enhances encounter rates between larval fish and their prey. This finding has been extended to suggest that feeding rates will increase in turbulent environments. However, this extrapolation assumes that turbulence has no detrimental effects on postencounter behaviors (e.g. pursuit success). We develop an analytical model to estimate the probability that larval fish feeding in turbulent environments successfully pursue encountered prey. We show that the overall probability of feeding is a dome-shaped function of turbulent velocity and that the height and location of the maxima depend on turbulence level and the behavioral characteristics of predator and prey. Highly turbulent conditions (e.g. storms) will reduce feeding rates below those which occur during calmer conditions and will affect the type of prey captured and ingested.

The brackish Baltic Sea hosts species of various origins and environmental tolerances. These immigrated to the sea 10,000 to 15,000 years ago or have been introduced to the area over the relatively recent history of the system. The Baltic Sea has only one known endemic species. While information on some abiotic parameters extends back as long as five centuries and first quantitative snapshot data on biota (on exploited fish populations) originate generally from the same time, international coordination of research began in the early twentieth century. Continuous, annual Baltic Sea-wide long-term datasets on several organism groups (plankton, benthos, fish) are generally available since the mid-1950s. Based on a variety of available data sources (published papers, reports, grey literature, unpublished data), the Baltic Sea, incl. Kattegat, hosts altogether at least 6,065 species, including at least 1,700 phytoplankton, 442 phytobenthos, at least 1,199 zooplankton, at least 569 meiozoobenthos, 1,476 macrozoobenthos, at least 380 vertebrate parasites, about 200 fish, 3 seal, and 83 bird species. In general, but not in all organism groups, high sub-regional total species richness is associated with elevated salinity. Although in comparison with fully marine areas the Baltic Sea supports fewer species, several facets of the system's diversity remain underexplored to this day, such as micro-organisms, foraminiferans, meiobenthos and parasites. In the future, climate change and its interactions with multiple anthropogenic forcings are likely to have major impacts on the Baltic biodiversity.

Large-scale climatic conditions prevailing over the central Baltic Sea resulted in declining salinity and oxygen concentrations in spawning areas of the eastern Baltic cod stock. These changes in hydrography reduced the reproductive success and, combined with high fishing pressure, caused a decline of the stock to the lowest level on record in the early 1990s. The present study aims at disentangling the interactions between reproductive effort and hydrographic forcing leading to variable recruitment. Based on identified key processes, stock dynamics is explained using updated environmental and life stage-specific abundance and production time-series. Declining salinities and oxygen concentrations caused high egg mortalities and indirectly increased egg predation by clupeid fish. Low recruitment, despite enhanced hydrographic conditions for egg survival in the mid-1990s, was due to food limitation for larvae, caused by the decline in the abundance of the copepod Pseudocalanus sp. The case of the eastern Baltic cod stock exemplifies the multitude effects climatic variability may have on a fish stock and underscores the importance of knowledge of these processes for understanding stock dynamics.

Processes controlling the production of new fish (recruitment) are poorly understood and therefore challenge population ecologists and resource managers. Sprat in the Baltic Sea is no exception: recruitment varies widely between years and is virtually independent of the biomass of mature sprat. Sprat is a key prey and predator species in the Baltic ecosystem and is commercially exploited (1.86 × 108 kg/yr since 1974). The population and fishery must therefore be managed sustainably and if necessary accommodate environmental effects on population dynamics. We demonstrate using 45 years of data that recruitment depends on temperature conditions during the months when sprat gonads, eggs, and larvae are developing. We also show that recruitment can be predicted before adults spawn (and fully 15 months earlier than using present technology) by using linkages between recruitment, large‐scale climate variability (North Atlantic Oscillation), Baltic Sea ice coverage, and water temperature. These relationships increase our understanding of sprat population dynamics and enable a desirable integration of fisheries ecology and management with climatology and oceanography.