The location of a shore‐parallel nearshore sandbar derived from 7 years of video imagery data at the single‐barred embayed Tairua Beach (NZ) is investigated to assess the contribution of barline rotation to the overall morphodynamics of sandbars in embayed environments and to characterize the process of rotation in relation to external conditions. Rotation induces cross‐shore barline variations at the embayment extremities on the order of magnitude of those induced by alongshore uniform cross‐shore migration of the bar. Two semiempirical models have been developed to relate the barline cross‐shore migration and rotation to external wave forcing conditions. The rotation model is directly derived from the cross‐shore migration model. Therefore, its formulation advocates for a primary role of cross‐shore processes in the rotation of sandbars at embayed beaches. The orientation evolves toward an equilibrium angle directly related to the alongshore wave energy gradient due to two different mechanisms. Either the bar extremities migrate in opposite directions with no overall cross‐shore bar migration (pivotal rotation) or the rotation relates to an overall migration of the barline which is not uniform along the beach (migration‐driven rotation). Migration and rotation characteristic response times are similar, ranging from 10 to 30 days for mild and energetic wave conditions and above 200 days during very calm conditions or when the bar is located far offshore.

A principal component analysis (PCA) is used to decompose data on the coupled morphodynamics of the shoreline and nearshore sandbar of a typical single‐barred embayed beach (Tairua Beach, New Zealand). Dynamic patterns are classified into simultaneous modes, where the bar and shoreline move at the same time, and nonsimultaneous modes, where the shore moves independently from the bar, and vice versa. Two simultaneous modes accounting for 65% of the variance of the shoreline and barline dominate the system. One mode describes inverse shoreline and sandbar cross‐shore migrations (alongshore averaged), occurring with simultaneous rotations in the same direction. The other mode accounts for migration in the same direction accompanied by variations of the barline curvature (similar to “breathing modes” previously described in embayed beach shoreline modeling studies). Two nonsimultaneous modes of lesser importance account separately for independent shoreline and barline rotations (10 to 15% of the variance explained). A PCA applied to the shore and sandbar behaviors modeled by four standard equilibrium models simulating shore and sandbar cross‐shore migrations and rotations show that these are interrelated because of a correlation between wave energy and direction. Shore and bar rotations are coupled partially because the shape of the bay induces a correlation of their respective drivers, the wave angle of incidence and the alongshore gradient of wave energy. However, this correlation depends on the wave energy. This, in combination with different shore and sandbar response times (quantified using the models), also explains the independent rotations reflected by the nonsimultaneous modes.

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This work analyzes variations of snow water with elevation for a group of AR4 models over the Western United States. The results are expressed in terms of both snow water equivalent (SWE), which is the depth of snow if melted, and snow water volume (SWV), which is the total volume of SWE for a specified region. The decrease in total SWV over the study region between 1905 and 25 and 1980-99 is about 22%, which is in the range of the observed values. The results for both the A1b and B1 scenarios for the middle twenty-first century both show a near total loss of SWE at lower elevations. However, the largest losses for SWV are near 1800 m. Furthermore, the total SWV loss for the A1b scenario is about 63%, whereas that for the more moderate B1 scenario is about 49%. Thus, a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is likely to reduce the loss of snow, which is vital to society in the dry Western United States.