Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are useful tools for modeling ecological predictions and aiding resource-management decision-making. We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising BBNs. Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model after expert review; testing and calibrating the model with case files to create a beta-level model; and updating the model structure and conditional probabilities with new validation data, creating the final-application gamma-level model. We illustrate and discuss these steps with an empirically based BBN model of factors influencing probability of capture of northern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus (Shaw)). Testing and updating BBNs, especially with peer review and calibration, are essential to ensure their credibility and reduce bias. Our guidelines provide modelers with insights that allow them to avoid potentially spurious or unreliable models.

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In this introduction to the following series of papers on Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) we briefly summarize BBNs, review their application in ecology and natural resource management, and provide an overview of the papers in this section. We suggest that BBNs are useful tools for representing expert knowledge of an ecosystem, evaluating potential effects of alternative management decisions, and communicating with nonexperts about making natural resource management decisions. BBNs can be used effectively to represent uncertainty in understanding and variability in ecosystem response, and the influence of uncertainty and variability on costs and benefits assigned to model outcomes or decisions associated with natural resource management. BBN tools also lend themselves well to an adaptive-management framework by posing testable management hypotheses and incorporating new knowledge to evaluate existing management guidelines.

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