The authors have studied the natural history of 377 patients with Stage I cutaneous malignant melanoma followed at the Arizona Cancer Center, Tucson. Two hundred eight patients, or 55%, remained free of metastatic disease after a median follow-up of 30 months. The survival at 5, 8, and 10 years was 69, 65, and 63%, respectively. Natural breakpoints in Breslow thickness for survival occurred at 0.85, 1.95, and 4.00 mm. These are not significantly different from those found by other investigators. A step-down multivariate analysis using the Cox regression model yielded four factors as highly significant in predicting survival: Breslow thickness (P less than 0.001), an age/sex interaction (P = 0.0012), clinical ulceration (P = 0.0039), and a prophylactic node dissection (P = 0.019). No predictive value for a BANS or non-BANS location was detected. These results are discussed in reference to other large series which describe the natural history of cutaneous melanoma.

The survival history of 259 patients with Stage I cutaneous malignant melanoma who were at risk for developing regional nodal metastases (Stage II) were studied. Eighty-seven of 377 Stage I patients (23%) developed regional nodal metastases (Stage IIB) with 40% 5-year survival. Fifty patients had regional nodal metastases at presentation, with or without a known primary (Stages IIA or IIC, respectively), with a 42% 5-year survival. A step-down multivariate analysis using the Cox regression model revealed four risk factors as being highly significant for predicting a more favorable survival outcome: (1) thinner Breslow thickness (P = 0.0001), (2) pathologic Stage I disease (P = 0.004), (3) no clinical ulceration (P = 0.0004), and (4) being a woman younger than 50 years of age (P = 0.029). These results are discussed in reference to other series.

Noncirrhotic portal vein thrombosis (PVT) is a rare disease that usually presents with small nonfatal "herald bleeding" with low mortality. Classic findings of noncirrhotic PVT include esophageal varices, splenomegaly, a normal liver, and an organized thrombus of the portal vein. We present a case of previously unreported sudden unexpected death from noncirrhotic PVT in an asymptomatic elderly woman, review the literature of this entity, and examine the pathophysiology of the formation of fatally ruptured varices. The portal vein must be carefully examined in all cases where there is no coexisting cirrhosis.