SUMMARYThis paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of a robust multivariate long-run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria). The trend shared by these four electricity markets appears to be common also to gas prices, but not to oil prices. The existence of a common long-term dynamics among electricity prices and between electricity prices and gas prices can be explained by the similarity of the market design across Europe and by the same marginal generation technology. Since standard unit root and cointegration tests are not robust to the peculiar characteristics of electricity prices time series, we also develop a battery of robust inference procedures that should assure the reliability of our results.

Using the 2008-2011 EU-Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data, we implement a dynamic threelevel model to analyze poverty persistence in 26 EU countries. We isolate true state dependence phenomena by disentangling the effects of observed and unobserved heterogeneity at country level and employ cofactors not previously considered by the literature. Estimates show that unobserved heterogeneity across individuals remains large, even after explicitly controlling for the observable components of individual characteristics. The initial value of poverty has large effects on current poverty status but this effect is not uniform across countries. The risk of poverty is negatively related to the size of the structural middle class and to the level of structural social expenditure but it increases when lagged total public expenditure increases (with respect to the structural value). There is strong evidence of true state dependence.JEL Codes: C23, C25, I30

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Electricity auctions, Periodic time series, Conditional heteroskedasticity, Multiple seasonalities, C22, D44, L94, Q40,

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