No abstract

This paper deals with the problem of attaining a set of targets (goals) by means of a set of instruments (subgoals) when the relation between the two groups of variables can be expressed with a linear system of stochastic equations. The objective function consists of the maximization of the probability that a realization (in terms of target variables) will lie in a confidence region of predetermined size. Under suitable normality assumptions this problem is amenable to a quadratic programming formulation.

No abstract

No abstract

Very valuable research assistance has been provided by Matteo Morini and Roberto Quaranta. Thanks to Jennifer Chubinski for her careful reading of the text. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.