This study quantifies the effect of antidumping investigations on the likelihood of an exporter being excluded from the domestic market in Brazil, a large developing country and a heavy user of antidumping measures (AD). A survival analysis methodology is used to measure the probability of exit with quarterly country–product data on imports and antidumping actions between 1997 and 2017. The results show that, during the course of an investigation, products from targeted countries present, on average, a 33% higher probability of ending a spell of trade compared to non‐targeted countries. We also identify at which stage of the investigation this effect is larger, whether at the beginning of the investigation, during the preliminary determination phase, or after the final duties are imposed. The results indicate that the effects are concentrated in the final phase, after the final determination, with a 47% increase in the hazard rate.

No abstract

Medidas protecionistas são geralmente adotadas com uma retórica de crescimento. Com esta justificativa, o Brasil vem intensificando o uso de medidas de proteção comercial desde o início da crise mundial em 2009. Neste artigo, são estimados os efeitos de uma forma particular de proteção, a defesa comercial, sobre variáveis macroeconômicas. Uma série de investigações antidumping de frequência trimestral e mensal é construída, e através de metodologia de séries temporais, avaliado o impacto macroeconômico de um aumento de novas investigações. Os resultados mostram que investigações antidumping têm um efeito no produto, mas não na inflação e no saldo da balança comercial. Estes resultados mostram que medidas protecionistas são recessivas até no curto prazo.

In this study we tested the hypothesis that part of reserve requirements’ costs is paid by banks’ stockholders, instead of only by depositors and borrowers. Through an event study of fourteen regulatory changes between 1998 and 2010, we investigated the existence of abnormal returns. The results suggest that stockholders share the costs.