The study of cultural evolution has taken on an increasingly interdisciplinary and diverse approach in explicating phenomena of cultural transmission and adoptions. Inspired by this computational movement, this study uses Bayesian networks analysis, combining both the frequentist and the Hamiltonian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, to investigate the highly representative elements in the cultural evolution of a Vietnamese city’s architecture in the early 20th century. With a focus on the façade design of 68 old houses in Hanoi’s Old Quarter (based on 78 data lines extracted from 248 photos), the study argues that it is plausible to look at the aesthetics, architecture, and designs of the house façade to find traces of cultural evolution in Vietnam, which went through more than six decades of French colonization and centuries of sociocultural influence from China. The in-depth technical analysis, though refuting the presumed model on the probabilistic dependency among the variables, yields several results, the most notable of which is the strong influence of Buddhism over the decorations of the house façade. Particularly, in the top 5 networks with the best Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) scores and p<0.05, the variable for decorations (DC) always has a direct probabilistic dependency on the variable B for Buddhism. The paper then checks the robustness of these models using Hamiltonian MCMC method and find the posterior distributions of the models’ coefficients all satisfy the technical requirement. Finally, this study suggests integrating Bayesian statistics in the social sciences in general and for the study of cultural evolution and architectural transformation in particular.
Every year, the Vietnamese people reportedly burned about 50,000 tons of joss papers, which took the form of not only bank notes, but iPhones, cars, clothes, even housekeepers, in hope of pleasing the dead. The practice was mistakenly attributed to traditional Buddhist teachings but originated in fact from China, which most Vietnamese were not aware of. In other aspects of life, there were many similar examples of Vietnamese so ready and comfortable with adding new norms, values, and beliefs, even contradictory ones, to their culture. This phenomenon, dubbed “cultural additivity”, prompted us to study the co-existence, interaction, and influences among core values and norms of the Three Teachings –Confucianism, Buddhism, and Taoism–as shown through Vietnamese folktales. By applying Bayesian logistic regression, we evaluated the possibility of whether the key message of a story was dominated by a religion (dependent variables), as affected by the appearance of values and anti-values pertaining to the Three Teachings in the story (independent variables). Our main findings included the existence of the cultural additivity of Confucian and Taoist values. More specifically, empirical results showed that the interaction or addition of the values of Taoism and Confucianism in folktales together helped predict whether the key message of a story was about Confucianism, β_{VT⋅VC} =0.86. Meanwhile, there was no such statistical tendency for Buddhism. The results lead to a number of important implications. First, this showed the dominance of Confucianism because the fact that Confucian and Taoist values appeared together in a story led to the story’s key message dominated by Confucianism. Thus, it presented the evidence of Confucian dominance and against liberal interpretations of the concept of the Common Roots of Three Religions (“tam giáo đồng nguyên”) as religious unification or unicity. Second, the concept of “cultural additivity” could help explain many interesting socio-cultural phenomena, namely the absence of religious intolerance and extremism in the Vietnamese society, outrageous cases of sophistry in education, the low productivity in creative endeavors like science and technology, the misleading branding strategy in business. We are aware that our results are only preliminary and more studies, both theoretical and empirical, must be carried out to give a full account of the explanatory reach of “cultural additivity”.
据报道,越南人每年焚烧大约5万吨香纸,不仅是纸币形式, 还有iPhone、汽车、衣服, 甚至是管家形,希望取悦死者。 这种做法被错误地归因于传统的佛教教义,但大多数越南人都不知道它的起源來自于中国。 在生活的其他方面,越南也有许多类似的例子, 他们乐于對自己的文化增添新的规范、价值和信仰,甚至相互矛盾的東西。 这种被称为“文化可加性”的现象促使我们研究越南民间故事所显示的三教(儒教、佛教和道教)的核心价值观和规范之间的共存、相互作用和影响。通过应用贝叶斯逻辑回归,我们评估了一个故事的关键信息是否受宗教(因变量)支配的可能性,還是受到三个教义有关的价值和反价值在表面的影响(自变量)。 我们的主要发现包括儒教和道教价值在文化上可加性的存在。更具体地说,实证结果表明,道教和儒教的价值观在民间故事中的相互作用或相加, 有助于预测故事的关键信息是否与儒教思想有关,β_{VT⋅VC} = 0.86。 同时,佛教却没有这样的统计趋势。 这些结果有一些重要意义。 首先,这表明了儒教思想的综治地位,因为儒教和道教的价值在一个故事中一起出现,导致了这个故事有儒学主导的关键信息。 因此,它表明了儒学支配地位的证据,并反对对三大宗教的共同根源,或是“三教同源” (“tam giáo đồng nguyên”) 概念的自由解释,认为宗教有统一性或唯一性。 其次,“文化可加性”概念有助于解释许多有趣的社会文化现象,就是越南社会没有不容忍和极端主义的宗教, 在教育里离谱诡辩的现象,科学技术的努力创造的效果低下, 商业中的误导品牌战略。我们知道我们的结果只是初步的, 并且必须进行更多的理论研究和实证研究, 以对 “文化可加性”有充分的解释。
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