We study the development of bank lending in the U.S. after four large jumps in uncertainty using an event study approach. We find that more liquid banks reduce lending less than banks with smaller liquidity ratios after a surge in uncertainty. Lending by smaller banks is also less responsive to increases in uncertainty. Banks with a higher capitalization ratio keep up lending to a greater extent, but the effect is only significant for banks which are not part of a multi-bank holding company. This heterogeneity across banks suggests that declines in bank lending following increases in uncertainty are partly the result of a reduced supply of bank loans.
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D DE EP PA AR RT TM ME EN NT T O OF F E EC CO ON NO OM MI IC CS S J JO OH HA AN NN NE ES S K KE EP PL LE ER R U UN NI IV VE ER RS SI IT TY Y L LI IN NZ Z
Money Market Uncertainty and Retail Interest Rate Fluctuations: A Cross-Country ComparisonBurkhard Raunig * Johann Scharler †
February 2007Abstract This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between money market uncertainty and unexpected deviations in retail interest rates in a sample of 10 OECD countries. We find that, with the exception of the US, money market uncertainty has only a modest impact on the conditional volatility of retail interest rates. Even for the US we find that the effects of money market uncertainty are spread out over time. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that banking relationships include implicit insurance arrangements and thereby reduce uncertainty.
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