BackgroundThe rising temperature of the world's oceans has become a major threat to coral reefs globally as the severity and frequency of mass coral bleaching and mortality events increase. In 2005, high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean resulted in the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin.Methodology/Principal FindingsSatellite-based tools provided warnings for coral reef managers and scientists, guiding both the timing and location of researchers' field observations as anomalously warm conditions developed and spread across the greater Caribbean region from June to October 2005. Field surveys of bleaching and mortality exceeded prior efforts in detail and extent, and provided a new standard for documenting the effects of bleaching and for testing nowcast and forecast products. Collaborators from 22 countries undertook the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date and found that over 80% of corals bleached and over 40% died at many sites. The most severe bleaching coincided with waters nearest a western Atlantic warm pool that was centered off the northern end of the Lesser Antilles.Conclusions/SignificanceThermal stress during the 2005 event exceeded any observed from the Caribbean in the prior 20 years, and regionally-averaged temperatures were the warmest in over 150 years. Comparison of satellite data against field surveys demonstrated a significant predictive relationship between accumulated heat stress (measured using NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Degree Heating Weeks) and bleaching intensity. This severe, widespread bleaching and mortality will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for reef ecosystems and suggests a troubled future for tropical marine ecosystems under a warming climate.

The shift in marine resource management from a compartmentalized approach of dealing with resources on a species basis to an approach based on management of spatially defined ecosystems requires an accurate accounting of energy flow. The flow of energy from primary production through the food web will ultimately limit upper trophic-level fishery yields. In this work, we examine the relationship between yield and several metrics including net primary production, chlorophyll concentration, particle-export ratio, and the ratio of secondary to primary production. We also evaluate the relationship between yield and two additional rate measures that describe the export of energy from the pelagic food web, particle export flux and mesozooplankton productivity. We found primary production is a poor predictor of global fishery yields for a sample of 52 large marine ecosystems. However, chlorophyll concentration, particle-export ratio, and the ratio of secondary to primary production were positively associated with yields. The latter two measures provide greater mechanistic insight into factors controlling fishery production than chlorophyll concentration alone. Particle export flux and mesozooplankton productivity were also significantly related to yield on a global basis. Collectively, our analyses suggest that factors related to the export of energy from pelagic food webs are critical to defining patterns of fishery yields. Such trophic patterns are associated with temperature and latitude and hence greater yields are associated with colder, high latitude ecosystems.

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Changes in bottom-up forcing are fundamental drivers of fish population dynamics. Recent literature has highlighted the need to incorporate the role of dynamic environmental conditions in stock assessments as a key step towards adaptive fishery management. Combining a bioclimate envelope model and a population dynamic model, we propose a model-based approach that can incorporate ecosystem products into single-species stock assessments. The framework was applied to a commercially important American lobster (Homarus americanus) stock in the Northwest Atlantic. The bioclimate envelope model was used to hindcast temporal variability in a lobster recruitment habitat suitability index (HSI) using bottom temperature and salinity. The climate-driven HSI was used to inform the lobster recruitment dynamics within the size-structured population dynamics model. The performance of the assessment model with an environment-explicit recruitment function is evaluated by comparing relevant assessment outputs such as recruitment, annual fishing mortality, and magnitude of retrospective biases. The environmentally-informed assessment model estimated (i) higher recruitment and lower fishing mortality and (ii) reduced retrospective patterns. This analysis indicates that climate-driven changes in lobster habitat suitability contributed to increased lobster recruitment and present potential improvement to population assessment. Our approach is extendable to other stocks that are impacted by similar environmental variability.