This paper explores the market efficiency of the six base metals traded on the LME (London Metal Exchange) using daily data from January 2000 to June 2016. The hypothesis that futures prices 3M (3-month) are unbiased predictors of spot prices (cash) in the LME is rejected based on the false premise that the financialization of commodities has been growing. For the robustness check, monthly data is analyzed using ordinary least squares (OLS) and GARCH (1,1) models. We reject the null hypothesis for all metals except for zinc.

Forecasting of LME (London Metal Exchange) nickel prices remains an interesting topic but lacks consensus. This study aims to fill knowledge gaps by demonstrating the announcement effect of export bans by the Indonesian government. This article focuses on Indonesia because Indonesia produces more than 60% of global nickel ore. We identified the sequence of two episodes in which Indonesian export bans of nickel ore appeared to increase LME nickel prices through the Romer and Romer (1989) approach. The impact of the Indonesian export ban in 2014 is somewhat larger than that of 2019. The shock on the LME nickel market in 2014 was sustained for a while after the ban was implemented. We believe that this is the first export ban that has had unexpected effects within the market.

Purpose To analyze and draw conclusions from the “Framework for ‘Investment Contract’ Analysis of Digital Assets” (the “Framework”), released by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on April 3, 2019, and the SEC’s corresponding no-action letter to TurnKey Jet, Inc. (“TKJ”), which is the SEC’s first no-action letter publicly agreeing with the view that the digital asset described therein is not a security. Design/Methodology/Approach Explains how the Framework assists market participants in analyzing whether a digital asset is a security, by applying the Howey factors for identifying an investment contract. Discusses the SEC’s TKJ Letter, highlighting the factors the SEC emphasized in its analysis of the Framework. Findings While largely reiterating prior guidance, the Framework provides a helpful overview of the SEC’s views on when a digital asset is a security and how to properly analyze the prongs of Howey with respect to digital assets. The Framework also leaves certain important questions unanswered, including, for example, whether digital assets distributed by means of a so-called “Airdrop” are securities under the Framework, and the extent to which the Framework is meant to interact with digital assets that were issued or otherwise operate on platforms that are primarily overseas. Originality/Value Expert guidance from lawyers with broad experience in financial services, securities, investment funds, derivatives, and digital assets regulation and compliance.

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