The diversity of life on Earth—which provides vital services to humanity (1)—stems from the difference between rates of evolutionary diversification and extinction. Human activities have shifted the balance (2): Species extinction rates are an estimated 1000 times the “background” rate (3) and could increase to 10,000 times the background rate should species threatened with extinction succumb to pressures they face (4). Reversing these trends is a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversitys 2020 Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and its 20 Aichi Targets and is explicitly incorporated into the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We identify major gaps in data available for assessing global biodiversity threats and suggest mechanisms for closing them
Various field operators and developers in the Eastern Mediterranean are reliant on the development of export pipeline routes that ascend the eastern portion of the Nile submarine delta. Evidence of numerous complex slope instability events and other geohazard processes across the submarine delta front mean that risk mitigation in this region needs careful considerationprior to installation. This paper focuses on integrated site characterisation including detailed sedimentological logging and two-dimensional (2D) geomechanical modelling of slope stability for a recent project on the eastern portion of the Nile submarine delta, with focus on four distinct palaeolandslide features on the delta slope region. Based on the review and integration of geophysical, geological and geotechnical datasets, all four palaeolandslides appear to have failed in a translational manner along a shear surface at approximately 6 m below seafloor. The shear surface coincides with the presence of a strong impedance reflector mapped in sub-bottom profiler data. This reflectorcorrelates well with a sampled occurrence of an approximately 1 m-thick silty sand bed (sedimentological FaciesN2), bounded above and below by extremely low to very low strength organic clay sediments (Facies N1). Eleven radiocarbon tests were performed in the palaeolandslide evacuation surfaces and the resultant mass transport deposits. These test resultsindicate that the four events occurred between approximately 500 years and 1600 years before present, with a best estimate age of 800 years before present (i.e. 12th century AD). The 1068 AD Gulf of Aqaba earthquake or the 1202 AD Lebanon earthquake are possible triggers for the palaeolandslides and relict seafloor morphology. Deterministic 2D slope stability analyses were performed along four slope profiles to output values for factor of safety (FOS) against slope failure. The analyses modelled present-day slope stability, and a reconstructed (pre-failure) seafloor to further understand the characteristics of the four observed palaeolandslides. The modelling showed that the slopes are stable under presentday conditions, even under abnormal level event (ALE) seismic loading. The modelling also showed how faulting plays a key part in overall slope stability: some faults buttress upslope sediments and thus increase the slope FOS, whereas in other casesthe faults steepen the overall slope and result in a lower slope FOS. The key uncertainty in the slope stability modelling is the poorly understood lateral geotechnical variability of Facies N2, which variesfrom silty fine sand to sandy silt, and the complex and currently uncharacterised behaviour of Facies N2 under cyclic seismic loading. It is possible that the variable fines content governs whether Facies N2 behaves in a drained or undrained mannerduring seismic loading, and how much strength degradation (i.e. liquefaction) may occur. All these factors could contribute to the stability of the slope during earthquake loading.
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