En este estudio se determinó el cambio de uso de suelo en la región de Chignahuapan-Zacatlán, Puebla, mediante un análisis bitemporal entre 1986 y 2011; la evaluación se hizo también para cada municipio. El cambio de uso de suelo se detectó mediante el manejo de imágenes Landsat. Los usos predominantes a nivel regional son el agrícola (49.7 %) y el forestal (46.1 %). En el caso de Chignahuapan, el uso agrícola representa la actividad principal con 58.9 % del territorio, mientras que en Zacatlán predomina el uso forestal con 57.3 %. A nivel regional y para el municipio de Zacatlán, el cambio de uso del suelo forestal se correlacionó significativamente (P ≤ 0.05) con 21 variables independientes, mediante un modelo probabilístico; en el caso de Chignahuapan, el modelo consideró 16 variables. A nivel regional, la probabilidad de cambio de uso de suelo forestal varió de 5 a 90 % y a nivel municipal de 7 a 99.8 %. Finalmente, la proyección para el año 2030 estima que el riesgo de deforestación a nivel regional y en los municipios de Chignahuapan y Zacatlán será de 13,063.8, 10,966.6 y 4,405.5 ha, respectivamente.

Identifying forest ecosystems with significant ecological, social, and/or economic values is an important first-step in conserving landscape function. Here, we identify priority conservation areas in the municipalities of Chignahuapan and Zacatlan, Puebla (Mexico), based on: (i) their capacity to sequester atmospheric CO2; and (ii) risk of future deforestation. We also explore management strategies for priority-lands conservation in the Mexican context. Aboveground C sequestration was estimated using wood density and biomass expansion-factor data available from local forestry sources. Deforestation risk was estimated by a probabilistic model of land use change using socioeconomic and biophysical variables. Carbon sequestration estimates ranged from 14 to 531 Mg ha -1 for Chignahuapan and Zacatlan, respectively. An estimated 11,746 and 4,406 ha of forest was determined to be at risk of deforestation in each municipality. Of these at-risk lands, 2,421 and 1,798 ha were determined to be at high risk. In combination, we determined that 10,687 and 4,319 ha, respectively, are priority lands for carbon sequestration in Chignahuapan and Zacatlan, of which 628 and 310 ha were determined to have high conservation priority. Identifying priority conservation areas through the integrated assessment of carbon sequestration and deforestation risk can enhance efforts to target land management strategies to mitigate climate change impacts. This approach can serve as a model for other forested regions in Mexico and other countries.