Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) is a risk-based approach of reservoir flood control operations that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by the California-Nevada River Forecast Center. Reservoir operations for each member of an ESP are individually modeled to forecast system conditions and calculate risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. Reservoir release decisions are simulated to manage forecasted risk with respect to established risk tolerance levels. EFO was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir near Ukiah, California, to evaluate its viability to improve reservoir storage reliability without increasing downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and operated for water supply by Sonoma Water. EFO was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the California-Nevada River Forecast Center, which provides 61-member ensembles of 15-day flow forecasts. EFO simulations yield generally higher storage levels during the flood management season while maintaining needed flood storage capacity by strategically prereleasing water in advance of forecasted storms. Model results demonstrate a 33% increase in median storage at the end of the flood management season (10 May) over existing operations without marked changes in flood frequency for locations downstream from Lake Mendocino. EFO may be a viable alternative for managing flood control operations at Lake Mendocino that provides multiple benefits (water supply, flood mitigation, and ecosystems) and provides a management framework that could be adapted and applied to other flood control reservoirs.

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The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates Prado Dam in southern California for flood risk management and to capture stormwater for groundwater recharge. USACE and the Orange County Water District (OCWD) have collaborated for over 30 years to temporarily store Santa Ana River (SAR) stormflow at Prado Dam for groundwater recharge in the Orange County Groundwater Basin (Basin). USACE, OCWD, and other stakeholders are assessing Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) at Prado Dam as a new operational approach to capture additional supplies of SAR water for groundwater recharge without affecting Prado Dam's primary flood risk management purpose. Many dams, including Prado Dam, do not directly incorporate precipitation and streamflow forecasting in their operations. FIRO is an innovative research and operations partnership that uses weather forecasting, streamflow modeling, and watershed monitoring to help water managers selectively retain or release water from reservoirs in a manner that reflects current and forecasted conditions. A recently completed study, called a Preliminary Viability Assessment of FIRO at Prado Dam, determined that increased stormwater capture, beyond the current program, is viable subject to completion of additional studies. The ultimate increase in stormwater capture is anticipated to largely be a function of community and environmental tolerance for more frequent inundation rather than operational constraints of the dam. FIRO is a promising approach to operating Prado Dam that can increase SAR stormwater capture for recharge to the Basin, reducing the need for imported water and contributing to sustainable groundwater management.