[1] Global changes in climate may have large impacts on regional water resources and the frequency of drought or flood events. Changes in precipitation or temperature may also severely modify the available water resources for users in several sectors. Here, we examine climate change scenarios for the Gállego river (a tributary of the larger Ebro river in Spain) in the context of quantitative water resources management for the basin. Projected changes to precipitation and temperature are derived from an ensemble of 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) run for the period 2071-2100 under the SRES A2 emissions scenario and are subsequently bias corrected before input into a hydrological model. The use of RCM ensembles is important for the incorporation of uncertainties derived from different model structures, parameterizations and boundary conditions into the hydrological modeling process and subsequent climate change impact assessment. All 6 RCMs project decreases in annual precipitation with some RCMs projecting a slight increase between December and February. Additionally, all models project a >3 C increase in annual mean temperature over the basin, with some models projecting a 9 C temperature increase during summer months. Hydrological simulations using the GEOTRANSF model, with the climate change scenarios as input, show that projected water availability for the Gállego is lower for the 2071-2100 period than for , with an increasing number of dry years. During the water-storage period (October to March), medium to low flows are reduced, while during the irrigation period (April to September), streamflow is reduced across the entire range of flows. The projected changes vary across the basin and are also not uniform throughout the year. Stronger drying occurs during the summer with potentially important implications for water resource management across many sectors including agriculture, with a reduction in the amount of water available for irrigation and hydropower generation, due to projected seasonal reductions in reservoir levels.

The potential for reducing the occurrence of shallow landslides through targeted reforestation of critical parts of a river basin is explored through mathematical modelling. Through the systematic investigation of land management options, modelling allows the optimum strategies to be selected ahead of any real intervention in the basin. Physically based models, for which the parameters can be evaluated using physical reasoning, offer particular advantages for predicting the effects of possible future changes in land use and climate. Typically a physically based landslide model consists of a coupled hydrological model (for soil moisture) and a geotechnical slope stability model, along with an impact model, such as basin sediment yield. An application of the SHETRAN model to the 65.8-km 2 Guabalcón basin in central Ecuador demonstrates a technique for identifying the areas of a basin most susceptible to shallow landsliding and for quantifying the effects of different vegetation covers on landslide incidence. Thus, for the modelled scenario, increasing root cohesion from 300 to 1500 Pa causes a two-thirds reduction in the number of landslides. Useful information can be obtained even on the basis of imperfect data availability but model output should be interpreted carefully in the light of parameter uncertainty.

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This study emphasizes the importance of rainstorm events in mobilizing carbon at the soil-stream interface from tropical rainforests. Half-hourly geochemical/isotopic records over a 13.5 h period from a 20 km 2 tropical rainforest headwater in Guyana show an order of magnitude increase in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration in less than 30 mins (10.6-114 mg/L). The composition of DOC varies significantly and includes optically invisible dissolved organic matter (iDOM) that accounts for a large proportion (4-89%) of the total DOC, quantified using size exclusion chromatography (SEC). SEC suggests that iDOM is comprised of low molecular weight organic moieties, which are likely sourced from fresh leaf litter and/or topsoil, as shown in soils from the surrounding environment. Although poorly constrained at present, the presence of iDOM further downstream during the wet season suggests that this organic matter fraction may represent an unquantified source of riverine CO 2 outgassing in tropical headwaters, requiring further consideration.