a b s t r a c tA three-dimensional model is used to study the influence of facies heterogeneity on energy production under different operational conditions of low-enthalpy geothermal doublet systems. Process-based facies modelling is utilised for the Nieuwerkerk sedimentary formation in the West Netherlands Basin to construct realistic reservoir models honouring geological heterogeneity. A finite element based reservoir simulator is used to model the fluid flow and heat transfer over time. A series of simulations is carried out to examine the effects of reservoir heterogeneity (Net-to-Gross ratio, N/G) on the life time and the energy recovery rate for different discharge rates and the production temperature (T min ) above which the doublet is working. With respect to the results, we propose a design model to estimate the life time and energy recovery rate of the geothermal doublet. The life time is estimated as a function of N/G, T min and discharge rate, while the design model for the energy recovery rate is only a function of N/G and T min . Both life time and recovery show a positive relation with an increasing N/G. Further our results suggest that neglecting details of process-based facies modelling may lead to significant errors in predicting the life time of low-enthalpy geothermal systems for N/G values below 70%.

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The primary challenge for efficient geothermal doublet design and deployment is the adequate prediction of the size, shape, lateral extent and thickness (or aquifer architecture) of aquifers. In the West Netherlands Basin, fluvial Lower Cretaceous sandstone-rich successions form the main aquifers for geothermal heat exploitation. Large variations in the thickness of these successions are recognised in currently active doublet systems that cannot be explained. This creates an uncertainty in aquifer thickness prediction, which increases the uncertainty in doublet lifetime prediction as it has an impact on net aquifer volume. The goal of this study was to improve our understanding of the thickness variations and regional aquifer architecture of the Nieuwerkerk Formation geothermal aquifers. For this purpose, new palynological data were evaluated to correlate aquifers in currently active doublet systems based on their chronostratigraphic position and regional Maximum Flooding Surfaces. Based on the palynological cuttings analysis, the fluvial interval of the Nieuwerkerk Formation was subdivided into two successions: a Late Ryazanian to Early Valanginian succession and a Valanginian succession. Within these successions trends were identified in sandstone content. In combination with seismic interpretation, maps were constructed that predict aquifer thickness and their lateral extent in the basin. The study emphasises the value of palynological analyses to reduce the uncertainty of fluvial hot sedimentary aquifer exploitation.