The United Kingdom Onshore Pipeline Operators Association (UKOPA) is developing supplements to the UK pipeline codes BSI PD 8010 and IGE/TD/1. These supplements will provide a standardized approach for the application of quantified risk assessment to pipelines. UKOPA has evaluated and recommended a methodology: this paper covers the background to, and justification of, this methodology. The most relevant damage mechanism which results in pipeline failure is external interference. Interference produces a gouge, dent or a dent-gouge. This paper describes the fracture mechanics model used to predict the probability failure of pipelines containing dent and gouge damage and contains predictions of failure frequency obtained using the gas industry failure frequency prediction methodologies FFREQ and operational failure data from the UKOPA fault database. The failure model and prediction methodology are explained and typical results are presented and discussed.

In Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS) schemes, Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) is captured from large scale industrial emitters and transported to geological sites for storage. The most efficient method for the transportation of CO 2 is via pipeline in the dense phase. CO 2 is a hazardous substance which, in the unlikely event of an accidental release, could cause people harm. To correspond with United Kingdom (UK) safety legislation, the design and construction of proposed CO 2 pipelines requires compliance with recognised pipeline codes. The UK code PD-8010-1 defines the separation distance between a hazardous pipeline and a nearby population as the minimum distance to occupied buildings using a substance factor. The value of the substance factor should be supported by the results of a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) approach to ensure the safe design, construction and operation of a dense phase CO 2 pipeline. Failure frequency models are a major part of this QRA approach and the focus of this paper is a review of existing oil and gas pipeline third-party external interference failure frequency models to assess whether they could be applied to dense phase CO 2 pipelines. It was found that the high design pressure requirement for a dense phase CO 2 pipeline typically necessitates the use of high wall thickness linepipe in pipeline construction; and that the

This paper describes two indoor shelter modelsan analytical model and a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model-that can be used to predict the level of infiltration of carbon dioxide (CO2) into a building following a release from an onshore CO2 pipeline. The motivation behind the development of these models was to demonstrate that the effects of shelter should be considered as part of a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for CO2 pipeline infrastructure and to provide a methodology for considering the impact of a CO2 release on building occupants.A key component in the consequence modelling of a release from a CO2 pipeline is an infiltration model for CO2 into buildings which can describe the impact on people inside buildings during a release event. This paper describes the development of an analytical shelter model and a CFD model which are capable of predicting the change in internal concentration, temperature and toxic load within a single roomed building that is totally engulfed by a transient cloud of gaseous CO2. Application of the models is demonstrated by comparison with experimental measurements of CO2 accumulation in a building placed in the path of a drifting cloud of CO2. The analytical and CFD models are shown to make good predictions of the average change in internal concentration. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the effects of shelter should be taken into account when conducting QRA assessments on CO2 pipelines.

The applicability of the flow stress dependent NG-18 equations to thick wall pipelines such as those used to transport dense phase carbon dioxide (CO2) is demonstrated. A comparison between the components of the NG-18 equations and BS 7910 shows that the factor MT for though-wall defects and MP for part-wall defects in the NG-18 equations are very close to the reference stress solutions in BS 7910 Annex P, which are applicable to thick wall pipe. Thus, by inference, the flow stress dependent form of the NG-18 equations is also applicable to thick wall pipe. A further comparison with experimental failure data for thick wall pipes shows that the flow stress dependent NG-18 equations are applicable to wall thicknesses of up to 47.2 mm when the full-size equivalent upper shelf Charpy V-notch impact energy is at least 50 J. The results suggest that in principle, the flow stress dependent NG-18 equations may be used as limit state functions in models to calculate the failure frequency due to third party external interference, for high toughness, thick wall pipelines such as those required for dense phase CO2 pipelines.

The United Kingdom Onshore Pipeline Operators Association (UKOPA) was formed by UK pipeline operators to provide a common forum for representing operators interests in the safe management of pipelines. This includes providing historical failure statistics for use in pipeline quantitative risk assessment and UKOPA maintain a database to record this data. The UKOPA database holds data on product loss failures of UK major accident hazard pipelines from 1962 onwards and currently has a total length of 21,845 km of pipelines reporting. Overall exposure from 1952 to 2016 is 927,351 km years of operating experience with a total of 197 product loss incidents since 1962. The low number of failures means that the historical failure rate for pipelines of some specific diameters, wall thicknesses and material grades is zero or statistically insignificant. It is unreasonable to assume that the failure rate for these pipelines is actually zero. In addition to product loss incidents, the UKOPA database contains extensive data on measured part wall damage that did not cause product loss, unlike the European Gas Incident data Group (EGIG) database, which also includes the UK gas transmission pipeline product loss data. The data on damage to pipelines caused by external interference can be assessed to derive statistical distribution parameters describing the expected gouge and dent dimensions resulting from an incident. Overall external interference incident rates for different class locations can also be determined. These distributions and incident rates can be used in structural reliability based techniques to predict the failure frequency due to external interference for a given set of pipeline parameters. The current distributions of external interference damage were derived from data up to 2009 and presented as Weibull distributions for gouge depth, gouge length and dent depth. Analysis undertaken for the COOLTRANS CO2 pipeline project, undertaken by National Grid in the UK, has identified several improvements to the recommended UKOPA approach to external interference failure frequency prediction. This paper summarises those improvements and presents updated damage distribution parameters from data up to 2016.