Abstract. During the past 1000 years, eruptions of Vesuvius have often been accompanied by large earthquakes in the Apennines 50-60 km to the northeast. Statistical investigations had shown that earthquakes often preceded eruptions, typically by less than a decade, but did not provide a physical explanation for the correlation. Here, we explore elastic stress interaction between earthquakes and eruptions under the hypothesis that small stress changes can promote events when the Apennine normal faults and the Vesuvius magma body are close to failure.We show that earthquakes can promote eruptions by compressing the magma body at depth and opening suitably oriented near-surface conduits. Voiding the magma body in turns brings these same normal faults closer to Coulomb failure, promoting earthquakes. Such a coupling is strongest if the magma reservoir is a dike oriented normal to the regional extension axis, parallel to the Apennines, and the near-surface conduits and fissures are oriented normal to the Apennines. This preferred orientation suggests that the eruptions issuing from such fissures should be most closely linked in time to Apennine earthquakes. Large Apennine earthquakes since 1400 are calculated to have transferred more stress to Vesuvius than all but the largest eruptions have transferred to Apennine faults, which may explain why earthquakes more commonly lead than follow eruptions. A two-way coupling may thus link earthquakes and Vesuvius eruptions along a 100-km-long set of faults. We test the statistical significance of the earthquake-eruption correlation in the two-way coupling zone, and find a correlation significant at the 95% confidence level.

[1] Calculations of static stress changes due to large earthquakes have shown that the spatial distribution of aftershocks is predictable to first order, with aftershocks primarily occurring in areas experiencing positive stress changes. Delineation of these areas relies on resolving the stress perturbation onto planes with known orientations; common practice is to use poorly constrained regional stress information to compute optimally oriented failure planes, assuming that they exist everywhere. Here we show that this assumption is not supported by observation but rather that aftershock failure planes are controlled by geological structure. We argue that useful aftershock hazard estimates are better made by replacing information on regional stress with statistical measures of structural orientations.INDEX TERMS: 7209 Seismology: Earthquake dynamics and mechanics; 7223 Seismology: Seismic hazard assessment and prediction; 7230 Seismology: Seismicity and seismotectonics.

We investigate fault interaction through elastic stress transfer among a sequence of moderate‐magnitude main shocks (5 < Mw < 6) which ruptured distinct normal fault segments during a seismic sequence in the Umbria‐Marche region (central Apennines). We also model the spatial pattern of aftershocks and their faulting mechanisms through Coulomb stress changes. We compute stress perturbations caused by earthquake dislocations in a homogeneous half‐space. Our modeling results show that seven out of eight main shocks of the sequence occur in areas of enhanced Coulomb stress, implying that elastic stress transfer may have promoted the occurrence of these moderate‐magnitude events. Our modeling results show that stress changes caused by normal faulting events reactivated and inverted the slip of a secondary N‐S trending strike‐slip fault inherited from compressional tectonics in its shallowest part (1–3 km). Of the 1517 available aftershocks, 82% are located in areas of positive stress changes for optimally oriented planes (OOPs) for Coulomb failure. However, only 45% of the 322 available fault plane solutions computed from polarity data is consistent with corresponding focal mechanisms associated with the OOPs. The comparison does not improve if we compute the optimally oriented planes for Coulomb failure by fixing the strike orientation of OOPs using information derived from structural geology. Our interpretation of these modeling results is that elastic stress transfer alone cannot jointly explain the aftershock spatial distribution and their focal mechanisms.

We examined shear wave splitting in SKS and S phases from 22 teleseisms at 10 temporary stations on a transect across the Northern Apenninic arc. The array, near 43°N, spans from Corsica Island across the Tyrrhenian region and the Apenninic belt to the Adriatic coast. We applied particle motion, covariance matrix decomposition, and cross correlation methods to estimate the polarization direction of the fast split‐shear wave (ϕ) and the delay time between split phases (δt). Most of the analyzed shear waves show clear evidence of splitting. The ϕ in the Adriatic foreland and in the Apennines are approximately parallel to the strike of the mountain belt (NW‐SE). The largest δt correspond to the highest elevations, suggesting that anisotropy is related to the compressional tectonics which built the Apennines, and that this tectonic compression involved at least the entire lithosphere. In the Tyrrhenian area we observe ϕ oriented about E‐W, suggesting a reorientation of the mantle fabric due to astenospheric flow, responsible for the E‐W post‐orogenic extension observed at the surface.

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