El cambio climático derivado del calentamiento global se prevé tendrá importantes efectos sobre los recursos fitogenéticos, lo cual tiene implicaciones signif icativas en la agricultura, ya que dichos recursos se asume poseen genes que pueden aportar características de rusticidad relacionadas con condiciones climáticas más extremosas. La presente investigación tuvo como objetivo estimar el efecto del cambio climático sobre la distribución geográfica de Gossypium hirsutum en México. Para ello se utilizaron los datos pasaporte de 387 accesiones realizadas entre 1980 y 2011 por nueve instituciones nacionales e internacionales. Se simuló la distribución potencial de G. hirsutum para la climatología de referencia 1961-1990 y un escenario de cambio climático 2040-2069 utilizando el modelo Maxent. La información climática se obtuvo del portal WorldClim Earth System Grid de donde se descargaron imágenes tipo ASCII con una resolución espacial de 2.5 minutos. Para el escenario de cambio climático 2040-2069, se consideraron tres modelos de circulación general (MCG): ECHAM5, MIROC (Medres) y UKMO_HADCM3, bajo el escenario de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero A2, en formato ASCII y con resolución espacial de 2.5 min. Ambas climatologías fueron trabajadas con el software Idrisi Selva. Los resultados de la modelación muestran que en los tres MGG se verá favorecida la distribución de G. hirsutum L. por el cambio climático, aumentando considerablemente las zonas en las que aparece actualmente.
The objective of this research was to do the physical characterization of cotton species (Gossypium spp.) based on the attributes of the seed. The experiment was performed at the Forage Biochemistry Laboratory of the Valle of Mexico Experiment Station, using seed of four cotton species (G. hirsutum, G. aridum, G. lobatum and G. shwendimanii). This research was carried out in two phases: in the first one, the weight of 1000 seeds and the hectolitre weight were determined. In the second one, seed dimensions were obtained by digital images and analysis process. The four cotton species were tested under a completely random experimental design. The data analysis was made by the variance analysis method, Tukey multiple comparison tests of means, principal components and cluster analysis. The results showed significant differences (0.01%) in all the physical characters of the seeds. Based on the grouping analyzes, three groups with contrasting characteristics among the cotton species were identified, being G. hirsutum, the species that presented the highest value in the vector magnitude of the physical characters of the cottonseed. The area, width and weight of 1000 seeds were the main variables that explained 98.6% of the variability existing in the characteristics of the seed, so these physical attributes play an important role in the characterization of the Gossypium native species of Mexico.
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