Objective Occupational stress is considered a worldwide epidemic experienced by a large proportion of the working population. The identification of characteristics that place people at high risk for occupational stress is the basis of managing and intervening in this condition. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate the risk features for occupational stress among medical workers using a risk model and nomogram. Methods This cross-sectional study included 1988 eligible participants from Henan Province in China. Occupational stress and worker-occupation fit were measured with the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scales (DASS-21) and Worker-Occupation Fit Inventory (WOFI). The identification of risk features was achieved through constructing multiple logistic regression model, and the risk features were used to develop the risk model and nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots were generated to assess the effectiveness and calibration of the risk model. Results Among 1988 participants in our study, there were 42.5% (845/1988) medical workers experienced occupational stress. The risk features for occupational stress included poor work-occupation fit (WOF score < 25, expected risk: 77.3%), nurse population (expected risk: 63.1%), male sex (expected risk: 67.2%), work experience duration of 11–19 years (expected risk: 54.5%), experience of a traumatic event (expected risk: 65.3%) and the lack of a regular exercise habit (expected risk: 60.2%). For medical workers who have these risk features, the expected risk probability of occupational stress would be 90.2%. Conclusion The current data can be used to identify medical workers at risk of developing occupational stress. Identifying risk features for occupational stress and the work-occupation fit can support hierarchical stress management in hospitals. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00420-021-01762-3.