Fatigue risk to the pilot has been a deterrent for conducting direct flights longer than 12 h under normal conditions, but such flights were a necessity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Twenty (N = 20) pilots flying across five humanitarian missions between Brazil and China wore a sleep-tracking device (the Zulu watch), which has been validated for the estimation of sleep timing (sleep onset and offset), duration, efficiency, and sleep score (wake, interrupted, light, or deep Sleep) throughout the mission period. Pilots also reported sleep timing, duration, and subjective quality of their in-flight rest periods using a sleep diary. To our knowledge, this is the first report of commercial pilot sleep behavior during ultra-long-range operations under COVID-19 pandemic conditions. Moreover, these analyses provide an estimate of sleep score during in-flight sleep, which has not been reported previously in the literature.

BACKGROUND: Biomathematical modeling software like the Sleep, Activity, Fatigue, and Task Effectiveness (SAFTE) model and Fatigue Avoidance Scheduling Tool (FAST) help carriers predict fatigue risk for planned rosters. The ability of a biomathematical model to accurately estimate fatigue risk during unprecedented operations, such as COVID-19 humanitarian ultra-long-range flights, is unknown. Azul Cargo Express organized and conducted five separate humanitarian missions to China between May and July 2020. Prior to conducting the missions, a sleep-prediction algorithm (AutoSleep) within SAFTE-FAST was used to predict in-flight sleep duration and pilot effectiveness. Here we compare AutoSleep predictions against pilots’ sleep diary and a sleep-tracking actigraphy device (Zulu watch, Institutes for Behavior Resources) from Azul’s COVID-19 humanitarian missions.METHODS: Pilots wore Zulu watches throughout the mission period and reported sleep duration for their in-flight rest periods using a sleep diary. Agreement between AutoSleep, diary, and Zulu watch measures was compared using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Goodness-of-fit between predicted effectiveness distribution between scenarios was evaluated using the R2 statistic.RESULTS: A total of 20 (N = 20) pilots flying across 5 humanitarian missions provided sleep diary and actigraphy data. ICC and R2 values were >0.90, indicating excellent agreement between sleep measures and predicted effectiveness distribution, respectively.DISCUSSION: Biomathematical predictions of in-flight sleep during unprecedented humanitarian missions were in agreement with actual sleep patterns during flights. These findings indicate that biomathematical models may retain accuracy even under extreme circumstances. Pilots may overestimate the amount of sleep that they receive during extreme flight-duty periods, which could constitute a fatigue risk.Devine JK, Garcia CR, Simoes AS, Guelere MR, de Godoy B, Silva DS, Pacheco PC, Choynowski J, Hursh SR. Predictive biomathematical modeling compared to objective sleep during COVID-19 humanitarian flights. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2022; 93(1):4–12.